This paper presents a framework to support decision-making in aircraft conceptual design optimisation under uncertainty. Emphasis is given to graphical visualisation methods capable of providing holistic yet intuitive relationships between design, objectives, feasibility and uncertainty spaces. Two concepts are introduced to allow interactive exploration of the effects of (1) target probability of constraint satisfaction (price of feasibility robustness) and (2) uncertainty reduction through increased state-of-knowledge (cost of uncertainty) on design and objective spaces. These processes are tailored to handle multi-objective optimisation problems and leverage visualisation techniques for dynamic inter-space mapping. An information reuse strategy is presented to enable obtaining multiple robust Pareto sets at an affordable computational cost. A case study demonstrates how the presented framework addresses some of the challenges and opportunities regarding the adoption of Uncertainty-based Multidisciplinary Design Optimisation (UMDO) in the aerospace industry, such as design margins policy, systematic and conscious definition of target robustness and uncertainty reduction experiments selection and prioritisation.

Aircraft manufacturers often consider producing multiple derivatives of aircraft to satisfy various market demands and technical changes while keeping development costs and time to a minimum. Many approaches have been proposed for carrying out derivative design. However, these approaches consider both the baseline design and derivatives together at the conceptual design stage using the entire set of design variables with an assumed set of expected requirements. These frozen requirements on derivative design cannot consider new demands from market changes. In this paper, a method is proposed that uses design optimisation for conceptual design of derivatives for existing aircraft that consider requirement changes. Furthermore, the Possibility-Based Design Optimisation (PBDO) method was implemented to consider uncertainty in the aircraft operation phase. The altitude range of aircraft operation was defined as an uncertain parameter to prevent violation of constraints in the entire operating envelope of the aircraft. The PBDO method yields a more conservative design than those obtained with deterministic design optimisation.

In this paper, the proposed derivative design process was applied to the Expedition 350, a small piston engine powered aircraft produced by Found Aircraft, Canada. A derivative that changes the normally aspirated engine to a turbocharged engine for high-altitude operation was considered. An optimum configuration with the new engine was obtained while enhancing performance and stability characteristics. The proposed derivative design process can be implemented on the derivative design of other aircraft.