At a time when nobody has yet landed on the Antarctic continent (1879), this presentation and accompanying paper predicts the morphology, dynamics and thermal regime of the Antarctic ice sheet. Mathematical modelling of the ice sheet is based on the assumptions that the thickness of tabular icebergs reflects the average thickness of the ice at the margin and that the surface gradients are comparable to those of reconstructed former ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere. The modelling shows that (a) ice is thickest near the centre at the South Pole and thins towards the margin; (b) the thickness at the pole is independent of the amount of snowfall at that place; and (c) the mean velocity at the margin, assuming a mean annual snowfall of two inches per year, is 400–500 feet per year. The thermal regime of the ice sheet is influenced by three heat sources – namely, the bed, the internal friction of ice flow and the atmosphere. The latter is the most significant and, since ice has a downwards as well as horizontal motion, this carries cold ice down into the ice sheet. Since the temperature at which ice melts is lowered by pressure at a rate of 0.0137 °F for every atmosphere of pressure (something known since 1784), much of the ice sheet and its base must be below the freezing point. Estimates of the thickness of ice at the centre depend closely on the surface gradients assumed and range between 3 and 24 miles. Such uncertainty is of concern since both the volume and gravitational attraction of the ice mass have an effect on global sea level. In order to improve our estimate of the volume of ice, we will have to wait 76 years for John Glen to develop a realistic flow law for ice.

Several historical sea level time series from Antarctic tide gauges, available from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, are analysed. Two sea level curves, obtained by averaging data from the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica, for 1958–2014, show trends of (2.0±0.1) and (1.8±0.2) mm yr-1, respectively. By empirical mode decomposition, cyclic and non-cyclic components of sea level change were separated. A periodicity of 4–5 years was confirmed and attributed to the effects of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. The non-cyclic components were found to show a ‘levelling off’ of ≈ 1 mm yr-1 since c. 2000, which cannot be attributed to the isostatic response to Holocene ice melting. Using assessed mass balance data from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Antarctic Peninsula, we studied the response to current ice loss in the region and found that the levelling off could be partly explained by accelerated melting during the last approximately two decades. This may represent the first evidence of sea level fingerprints of glacial melting in Antarctica.

Sediment cores from the continental rise west of the Antarctic Peninsula and the northern Weddell and Scotia Seas were investigated for their ice-rafted debris (IRD) content by lithofacies logging and counting of particles >0.2 cm from core x-radiographs. The objective of the study was to determine if there are iceberg-rafted units similar to the Heinrich layers of the North Atlantic that might record periodic, widespread catastrophic collapse of basins within the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Quaternary. Cores from the Antarctic Peninsula margin contain prominent IRD-rich units, with maximum IRD concentrations in oxygen isotope stages 1, 5, and 7. However, the greater concentration of IRD in interglacial stages is the result of low sedimentation rates and current winnowing, rather than regional-scale episodes of increased iceberg rafting. This is also supported by markedly lower mass accumulation rates (MAR) during interglacial periods versus glacial periods. Furthermore, thinner IRD layers within isotope stages 2–4 and 6 cannot be correlated between individual cores along the margin. This implies that the ice sheet over the Antarctic Peninsula did not undergo widespread catastrophic collapse along its western margin during the late Quaternary (isotope stages 1–7). Sediment cores from the Weddell and Scotia Seas are characterized by low IRD concentrations throughout, and the IRD signal generally appears to be of limited regional significance with few strong peaks that can be correlated between cores. Tentatively, this argues against pervasive, rapid ice-sheet collapse around the Weddell embayment over the last few glacial cycles.

C band backscatter parameters contain information about the upper snowpack/firn in the dry snow zone. The wide incidence angle diversity of the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) gives unprecedented characterisation of backscatter anisotropy, revealing the backscatter response to climatic forcing. The A (isotropic component) and M2 (bi-sinusoidal azimuth anisotropy) parameters are investigated here, in conjunction with data from atmospheric and snowpack models, to identify the backscatter response to surface forcing parameters (wind speed and persistence, precipitation, surface temperature, density and grain size). The long-term mean A parameter is successfully recreated with a regression using these drivers, indicating strong links between the A parameter and precipitation on long timescales. While the ASCAT time series is too short to determine which factors drive observed trends, factors influencing the seasonal and short timescale variability are revealed. On these timescales, A strongly responds to the propagation of surface temperature cycles/anomalies downward through the firn, via direct modulation of the dielectric constant. The influence of precipitation on A is small at shorter timescales. The M2 parameter is controlled by wind speed and persistence, through modification of monodirectionally-aligned surface roughness. This variability indicates that throughout much of coastal Antarctica, a microwave ‘snapshot’ is generally not representative of longer-term conditions.

Flood-carved landforms across the deglaciated terrain of Victoria Land, East Antarctica, provide convincing geomorphological evidence for the existence of subglacial drainage networks beneath the Antarctic ice sheet, and motivate research into the inaccessible environment beneath the contemporary ice sheet. Through this research, our understanding of Antarctic subglacial hydrology is steadily building, and this paper presents an overview of the current state of knowledge. The conceptualization of subglacial hydrological behaviour was developed at temperate and Arctic glaciers, and is thus less mature in the Antarctic. Geophysical and remote sensing observations have demonstrated that many subglacial lakes form part of a highly dynamic network of subglacial drainage beneath the Antarctic ice sheet. Recent research into subglacial water flows, other than those directly concerned with lakes, has discovered potentially significant impacts on ice stream dynamics, ice sheet mass balance, and supplies of water to the ocean potentially affecting circulation and nutrient productivity. Despite considerable advances in understanding there remain a number of grand challenges that must be overcome in order to improve our knowledge of these subglacial hydrological processes.

The thrust of this paper is that James Croll should be more generously lauded for his remarkable contribution to the study of ice ages, glacier flow and the nature of the Antarctic ice sheet. Croll was the first to calculate the link between fluctuations of the Earth’s orbit and glacial/interglacial cycles, and to identify the crucial role of positive feedback processes necessary to transform minor insolation changes into major climatic changes. He studied the mechanisms of glacier flow and explained flow over horizontal land surfaces at a continental scale, including the excavation of rock basins. Croll relied on a quantitatively based deductive approach. One of his most remarkable achievements was his study of the thickness, thermal regime and dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet (1879). This contains important insights, which are relevant today, and yet the paper was published before anyone had landed on the continent!

Fluctuations in the volume of the Antarctic ice sheet for the last 740 ka are calculated by forcing a simple ice sheet model with a sea-level history (from a composite deep sea δ18O record) and a temperature history (from the Dome C deuterium record). Antarctic ice volume reaches maximum values of about 30 × 1015 m3, 3 to 8 ka after glacial maxima [defined as maximum values of the deep sea δ18O record]. Minimum values of ice volume reached in the course of interglacial periods are about 26 × 1015 m3. Most of the time the temperature forcing (larger accumulation) and sea-level forcing (grounding-line retreat) tend to have competing effects. However, towards the end of a glacial cycle, when temperature rises and sea-level is still relatively low, the ice volume reaches a peak. The peak value is very sensitive to the relative phase of the sea-level forcing with respect to the temperature forcing. This is further studied by looking at the response of the model to purely periodic forcings with different relative phase. The large sensitivity of ice sheet size to the phase of the forcings may have some implications for dating of deep ice cores. Care has to be taken by using anchor points from the deep sea record.

A mass balance calculation was made for the floating part of Byrd Glacier, using 1978–79 ice elevation and velocity data, over the 45 km of Byrd Glacier from its grounding line to where it leaves its fjord and merges with the Ross Ice Shelf. Smoothed basal melting rates were relatively uniform over this distance and averaged 12 ± 2 m yr−1.

An extensive analogue database of 60 MHz radio-echo sounding records of Antarctica (covering 50% of the ice sheet) is held at the Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge. This database was analysed in order to determine the presence and location of Antarctic sub-glacial lakes. In total, 77 sub-glacial lake-type records were identified, 13 more than detected in previous studies. An inventory of these sub-glacial lakes includes geographical coordinates, minimum length and overlying ice thickness for each lake. Information concerning the location of these lakes indicates that the majority (~70%) are found in the proximity of ice divides at Dome C and Ridge B within East Antarctica.