A model (called the rule space model) which permits measuring cognitive skill acquisition, diagnosing cognitive errors, detecting the weaknesses and strengths of knowledge possessed by individuals was introduced earlier. This study further discusses the theoretical foundation of the model by introducing “bug distribution” and hypothesis testing (Bayes' decision rules for minimum errors) for classifying subjects into their most plausible latent state of knowledge. The model is illustrated with the domain of fraction arithmetic and compared with the results obtained from a conventional artificial intelligence approach.