Nature-based solutions are becoming increasingly recognized as effective tools for addressing various environmental problems. This study presents a novel approach to selecting optimal blue–green infrastructure (BGI) solutions tailored to the unique environmental and climatic challenges of Istanbul, Türkiye. The primary objective is to utilize a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for assisting in the identification of the most effective BGI solutions, considering the city’s distinct environmental conditions and vulnerabilities to climate change. Our methodology integrates comprehensive data collection, including meteorological and land use data, and employs a BBN model to analyze and weigh the complex network of factors influencing BGI suitability. Key findings reveal the model’s capacity to effectively predict BGI applicability across diverse climate scenarios, with quantitative results demonstrating a notable enhancement in decision-making processes for urban sustainability. Quantitative results from our model reveal a significant improvement in decision-making accuracy, with a predictive accuracy rate of 82% in identifying suitable BGI solutions for various urban scenarios. This enhancement is particularly notable in densely populated districts, where our model predicted a 25% greater efficiency in stormwater management and urban heat island mitigation compared to traditional planning methods. The study also acknowledges the limitations, such as data scarcity and the need for further model refinement. The results highlight the model’s potential for application in other complex urban areas, making it a valuable tool for improving urban sustainability and climate change adaptation. This study shows the importance of incorporating detailed meteorological and local climate zones data into urban planning processes and suggests that similar methodologies could be beneficial for addressing environmental challenges in diverse urban settings.