We investigate the consequences of overleveraging and the potential for destabilizing effects arising from financial- and real-sector interactions. In a theoretical framework, we model overleveraging and demonstrate how a highly leveraged banking system can lead to unstable dynamics and downward spirals. Inspired by models developed by Brunnermeier, Sannikov and Stein, we empirically measure the deviation-from-optimal-leverage for a sample of large EU banks. This measure of overleveraging is used to condition the joint dynamics of credit flows and macroeconomic activity in a large-scale regime change model: a Threshold Mixed-Cross-Section Global Vector Autoregressive (T-MCS-GVAR). The regime-switching component of the model is meant to make the relationship between credit and real activity dependent on the extent to which the banking system is overleveraged. We find significant nonlinearities as a function of overleverage. The farther the observed leverage in the banking system from optimal leverage, the more detrimental is the effect of a deleveraging shock on credit supply and economic activity.

The availability of bank finance to small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) is important to allow SMEs to start up and finance investment for growth. To assess changes in such availability over 2001–12, we used data from a series of surveys that provide detailed information on the characteristics of a sample of UK SMEs, their owners and experiences of obtaining finance. Using econometric models, which included controls for SME characteristics and risk factors, indicators of changes in the provision of bank lending over the time period abstracting from borrower risk could be obtained. The results suggest ongoing restrictions on the availability of SME bank finance up to 2012 – which appear to have persisted into 2013. Further research using macro data shows an impact of economic uncertainty on such finance. If unresolved, these patterns could imply adverse effects on economic performance in the short and long term.

Cross-country divergence in credit availability to Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) has been a salient feature of the recent Euro Area economic crisis. This paper uses firm level and macroeconomic data to identify heterogeneity in SME credit conditions within the Euro Area since 2009. By taking account of differences in firm quality and in the risk-free interest rate, we use remaining residual differences in credit supply conditions to identify a ‘credit crunch’. We investigate whether macroeconomic conditions such as real economy growth and private sector leverage can explain these residual credit crunches, finding that banks respond to these factors when allocating credit to SMEs. The analysis allows identification of economies where credit conditions appear both unexpectedly restrictive and accommodative.