We determine the distributions of some random variables related to a simple model of an epidemic with contact tracing and cluster isolation. This enables us to apply general limit theorems for super-critical Crump–Mode–Jagers branching processes. Notably, we compute explicitly the asymptotic proportion of isolated clusters with a given size amongst all isolated clusters, conditionally on survival of the epidemic. Somewhat surprisingly, the latter differs from the distribution of the size of a typical cluster at the time of its detection, and we explain the reasons behind this seeming paradox.

Let Xn(k) be the number of vertices at level k in a random recursive tree with n+1 vertices. We are interested in the asymptotic behavior of Xn(k) for intermediate levels k=kn satisfying kn→∞ and kn=o(logn) as n→∞. In particular, we prove weak convergence of finite-dimensional distributions for the process (Xn ([knu]))u>0, properly normalized and centered, as n→∞. The limit is a centered Gaussian process with covariance (u,v)↦(u+v)−1. One-dimensional distributional convergence of Xn(kn), properly normalized and centered, was obtained with the help of analytic tools by Fuchs et al. (2006). In contrast, our proofs, which are probabilistic in nature, exploit a connection of our model with certain Crump–Mode–Jagers branching processes.