A player starts at x in (-G, G) and attempts to leave the interval in a limited playing time. In the discrete-time problem, G is a positive integer and the position is described by a random walk starting at integer x, with mean increments zero, and variance increment chosen by the player from [0, 1] at each integer playing time. In the continuous-time problem, the player's position is described by an Ito diffusion process with infinitesimal mean parameter zero and infinitesimal diffusion parameter chosen by the player from [0, 1] at each time instant of play. To maximize the probability of leaving the interval (–G, G) in a limited playing time, the player should play boldly by always choosing largest possible variance increment in the discrete-time setting and largest possible diffusion parameter in the continuous-time setting, until the player leaves the interval. In the discrete-time setting, this result affirms a conjecture of Spencer. In the continuous-time setting, the value function of play is identified.

After preliminaries on Markov chains, supermartingales and potential theory (Section 1), the energy of a potential supermartingale generated by an increasing process is defined. The paper examines some properties of the energy of potentials of the form Ut = p(Xt) where p is a purely excessive function (which is also a potential of a charge) for a Markov chain (Xt). Also, the mutual energy of two potentials associated with the same Markov chain is discussed. Finally, several applications and examples are worked out in detail (Section 3).