Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
  1. Home
  2. Search

Refine search

Refine search

Access:
Content type:
Publication date:
Apply   From and To filters
Subject: Show more
Journals Show more
Publishers: Show more
Societies Show more
Series: Show more
Collections: Show more

Actions for selected content:

Select all | Deselect all
  • View selected items
  • Export citations
  • Download PDF (zip)
  • Save to Kindle
  • Save to Dropbox
  • Save to Google Drive

Save Search

You can save your searches here and later view and run them again in "My saved searches".

Please provide a title, maximum of 40 characters.
Cancel
×

2 results

  • 5 - The L’Aquila Trial and the Public Communication of Risk

  • Paul Embrechts, Swiss Federal University (ETH), Zürich, Marius Hofert, The University of Hong Kong, Valérie Chavez-Demoulin, Université de Lausanne, Switzerland
  • Book:
    Risk Revealed
    Published online:
    05 April 2024
    Print publication:
    11 April 2024, pp 57-66

  • Summary

    We single out the 2006 L’Aquila earthquake in Italy as it yields a dramatic perspective on the problem of evidence-based communication. In the aftermath of this earthquake, several scientists were sentenced to jail for insufficiently clear communication related to an imminent earthquake. Though the sentences were later overturned, we can all learn from this example. It is interesting that this court case took place in the country that also tried Galileo Galilei in the seventeenth century for his defense of heliocentrism. A wonderful example in this context is provided by Galileo’s Dialogo published in 1632. In this publication, Galileo communicates his findings to a wider public through a series of dialogues between two philosophers and a layman. We present several parallels to present-day discussions on risk and science communication.

  • An evaluation of Chinese annual earthquake predictions, 1990–1998

  • Part of
  • Yaolin Shi, Jie Liu, Guomin Zhang
  • Journal:
    Journal of Applied Probability / Volume 38 / Issue A / 2001
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    14 July 2016, pp. 222-231
    Print publication:
    2001

  • The annual earthquake predictions of the China Seismological Bureau (CSB) are evaluated by means of an R score (an R score is approximately 0 for completely random guesses, and approximately 1 for completely successful predictions). The average R score of the annual predictions in China in the period 1990–1998 is about 0.184, significantly larger than 0.0. However, background seismicity is higher in seismically active regions. If a ‘random guess' prediction is chosen to be proportional to the background seismicity, the expected R score is 0.123, and the nine-year mean R score of 0.184 as observed is only marginally higher than this background value. Monte Carlo tests indicate that the probability of attaining an R score of actual prediction by background seismicity based on random guess is about . It is concluded that earthquake prediction in China is still in a very preliminary stage, barely above a pure chance level.