This paper provides a user-friendly approach to explain how variation in fundamental price-determining variables ‘translates into’ variation in the fundamental value of equities, based on the standard dividend-growth model. The analysis is illustrated with UK data using estimates of real interest rate forecasts and real dividend growth rate forecasts in the past. An important application of this approach is that stock market volatility can be analysed in terms of its component parts. Actual market volatility does not appear to be excessive when compared with the notional volatility implied by changes over time in our estimates of forecast real interest rates and forecast real dividend growth rates.

This paper considers certain applications of economics to actuarial work, concentrating on three issues of public interest. The background to the first two issues is the Government's encouragement of personal pensions particularly through stakeholder pensions. The paper shows how the use of an economics model enables investigations to be made, firstly on the demand for personal pensions by different income groups and secondly on the likely inequality of benefits between generations due to variations in the rates of return. The conclusion on the first issue is that personal pensions are of little benefit to low-earners, i.e. those the Government most wants to benefit, and recommends a way of rectifying this; the main conclusion on the second issue is that households will take action to mitigate much of the inequality. The third issue, that of estimating future rates of return, is one of key financial importance. The paper reviews relevant economic papers in this area and considers how the actuarial profession may improve communication with the economics discipline and with its members.

The paper outlines some background thinking to current pensions issues. In particular it addresses areas where the profession requires to articulate clearer views or reasoning about its position.