In this work we address the problem of estimating the probabilities of causal contacts between civilizations in the Galaxy. We make no assumptions regarding the origin and evolution of intelligent life. We simply assume a network of causally connected nodes. These nodes refer somehow to intelligent agents with the capacity of receiving and emitting electromagnetic signals. Here we present a three-parametric statistical Monte Carlo model of the network in a simplified sketch of the Galaxy. Our goal, using Monte Carlo simulations, is to explore the parameter space and analyse the probabilities of causal contacts. We find that the odds to make a contact over decades of monitoring are low for most models, except for those of a galaxy densely populated with long-standing civilizations. We also find that the probability of causal contacts increases with the lifetime of civilizations more significantly than with the number of active civilizations. We show that the maximum probability of making a contact occurs when a civilization discovers the required communication technology.

We present the first model that couples high-resolution simulations of the formation of local group galaxies with calculations of the galactic habitable zone (GHZ), a region of space which has sufficient metallicity to form terrestrial planets without being subject to hazardous radiation. These simulations allow us to make substantial progress in mapping out the asymmetric three-dimensional GHZ and its time evolution for the Milky Way (MW) and Triangulum (M33) galaxies, as opposed to works that generally assume an azimuthally symmetric GHZ. Applying typical habitability metrics to MW and M33, we find that while a large number of habitable planets exist as close as a few kiloparsecs from the galactic centre, the probability of individual planetary systems being habitable rises as one approaches the edge of the stellar disc. Tidal streams and satellite galaxies also appear to be fertile grounds for habitable planet formation. In short, we find that both galaxies arrive at similar GHZs by different evolutionary paths, as measured by the first and third quartiles of surviving biospheres. For the MW, this interquartile range begins as a narrow band at large radii, expanding to encompass much of the Galaxy at intermediate times before settling at a range of 2–13 kpc. In the case of M33, the opposite behaviour occurs – the initial and final interquartile ranges are quite similar, showing gradual evolution. This suggests that Galaxy assembly history strongly influences the time evolution of the GHZ, which will affect the relative time lag between biospheres in different galactic locations. We end by noting the caveats involved in such studies and demonstrate that high-resolution cosmological simulations will play a vital role in understanding habitability on galactic scales, provided that these simulations accurately resolve chemical evolution.

A simple stochastic model for evolution, based upon the need to pass a sequence of n critical steps is applied to both terrestrial and extraterrestrial origins of life. In the former case, the time at which humans have emerged during the habitable period of Earth suggests a value of n=4. Progressively adding earlier evolutionary transitions gives an optimum fit when n=5, implying either that their initial transitions are not critical or that habitability began around 6 Ga ago. The origin of life on Mars or elsewhere within the Solar System is excluded by the latter case and the simple anthropic argument is that extraterrestrial life is scarce in the Universe because it does not have time to evolve. Alternatively, the timescale can be extended if the migration of basic progenotic material to Earth is possible. If extra transitions are included in the model to allow for Earth migration, then the start of habitability needs to be even earlier than 6 Ga ago. Our present understanding of Galactic habitability and dynamics does not exclude this possibility. We conclude that Galactic punctuated equilibrium, proposed as a way round the anthropic problem, is not the only way of making life more common in the Galaxy.

One of the criteria for the concept of a galactic habitable zone (GHZ) is that the pattern speed of the stars in the GHZ should be close to the pattern speed of the spiral arms. Another criteria is that the stars in it should have a high enough metallicity. In a barred galaxy, the GHZ will be more complicated to define since the bar can change stellar orbits. Many disc galaxies, including the Milky Way, are barred galaxies. The stars in the bar move in a number of fairly complicated orbits. However, the bar will also influence the orbits of stars in the whole galaxy. Stars passing close to the bar can either gain or lose angular momentum, due to a positive or negative torque by the bar. Some stars will therefore be captured by the bar while some stars eventually may reach the escape velocity from the galaxy. The bar will hence be able to relocate stars, and stars with low or high metallicity could be found far away from their original orbits. The ordinary evolution of a bar is to grow in length out to the co-rotation radius for the pattern speed of the bar. As the galaxy ages, and the bar grows in length, the bar will influence a larger part of the galaxy. The effect of moving stars inwards or outwards is greatest just outside the bar, and this region can eventually lose a high percentage of the stars.

About a fifth of the exoplanetary systems that have been discovered contain a so-called hot-Jupiter – a giant planet orbiting within 0.1 AU of the central star. Since these stars are typically of the F/G spectral type, the orbits of any terrestrial planets in their habitable zones at ~1 AU should be dynamically stable. However, because hot-Jupiters are thought to have formed in the outer regions of a protoplanetary disc, and to have then migrated through the terrestrial planet zone to their final location, it is uncertain whether terrestrial planets can actually grow and be retained in these systems. In this paper we review attempts to answer this question. Initial speculations, based on the assumption that migrating giant planets will clear planet-forming material from their swept zone, all concluded that hot-Jupiter systems should lack terrestrial planets. We show that this assumption may be incorrect, for when terrestrial planet formation and giant planet migration are simulated simultaneously, abundant solid material is predicted to remain from which terrestrial planet growth can resume.