For a one-locus haploid infinite population with discrete generations, the celebrated model of Kingman describes the evolution of fitness distributions under the competition of selection and mutation, with a constant mutation probability. This paper generalises Kingman’s model by using independent and identically distributed random mutation probabilities, to reflect the influence of a random environment. The weak convergence of fitness distributions to the globally stable equilibrium is proved. Condensation occurs when almost surely a positive proportion of the population travels to and condenses at the largest fitness value. Condensation may occur when selection is favoured over mutation. A criterion for the occurrence of condensation is given.

A model for the variation in time of the fitness distribution in a large haploid population is shown to have simple limiting properties which can be elucidated in fairly explicit terms. The novel feature is that mutation is not assumed to cause a small perturbation in fitness but to bring down the evolutionary ‘house of cards’. A threshold phenomenon appears: if a certain inequality holds the limiting distribution is a skewed version of the mutant fitness distribution, but otherwise an atom of probability builds up at the upper limit of fitness.