Helicobacter pylori eradication therapy was included with insurance coverage from 1999 onwards in Japan, with the incidence of peptic ulcer expected to decrease as a consequence. This study investigated the temporal dynamics of peptic ulcer in Japan and identified underlying contributory factors using mathematical models. We investigated the seroprevalence of H. pylori and analysed a snapshot of peptic ulcer cases. Ten statistical models that incorporated important events – H. pylori infection, the cohort effect, eradication therapy and the natural trend for reduction – were fitted to the case data. The hazard of infection with H. pylori was extracted from published estimates. Models were compared using the Akaike information criterion (AIC), and factor contributions were quantified using the coefficient of determination. The best-fit model indicated that 88.1% of the observed snapshot of cases (AIC = 289.2) included the effects of (i) H. pylori infection, (ii) the cohort effect and (iii) eradication therapy, as explanatory variables, the contributions of which were 80.8%, 4.0% and 3.2%, respectively. Among inpatients, a simpler model with (i) H. pylori infection only was favoured (AIC = 107.7). The time-dependent epidemiological dynamics of peptic ulcers were captured and H. pylori infection and eradication therapy explained ⩾84% of the dramatic decline in peptic ulcer occurrence.

We investigated a possible outbreak of H. pylori in a rural Northern Plains community. In a cross-sectional survey, we randomly sampled 244 households from a geocoded emergency medical system database. We used a complex survey design and global positioning system units to locate houses and randomly selected one eligible household member to administer a questionnaire and a 13C-urea breath test for active H. pylori infection (n = 166). In weighted analyses, active H. pylori infection was detected in 55·0% of the sample. Factors associated with infection on multivariate analysis included using a public drinking-water supply [odds ratio (OR) 12·2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·9–50·7] and current cigarette smoking (OR 4·1, 95% CI 1·7–9·6). People who lived in houses with more rooms, a possible indicator of decreased crowding in the home, were less likely to have active H. pylori infections (OR 0·7, 95% CI 0·5–0·9 for each additional room).