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1 results

  • BUSINESS UNCERTAINTY AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF FISCAL POLICY IN GERMANY

  • Tim Oliver Berg
  • Journal:
    Macroeconomic Dynamics / Volume 23 / Issue 4 / June 2019
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    20 July 2017, pp. 1442-1470

  • There are suggestions that increased uncertainty makes fiscal policy temporarily less effective. In this paper, I examine the relationship between business uncertainty and fiscal policy effectiveness in Germany. I use measures of business uncertainty that are derived from the firm-level data of the Ifo Business Climate Survey and interact them with the parameters of a structural vector autoregression to produce state-dependent spending multipliers. The impact of increased uncertainty on the spending multiplier is generally small and often statistically not significant in the short run. By contrast, I obtain a significant positive impact on the long-run multiplier. These baseline results are supported by a variety of robustness checks and specifications.