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1 results

  • Multivariate birth-and-death processes as approximations to epidemic processes

  • D. A. Griffiths
  • Journal:
    Journal of Applied Probability / Volume 10 / Issue 1 / March 1973
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    14 July 2016, pp. 15-26
    Print publication:
    March 1973

  • This paper presents the theory of a multivariate birth-and-death process and its representation as a branching process. The bivariate linear birth-and-death process may be used as a model for various epidemic situations involving two types of infective. Various properties of the transient process are discussed and the distribution of epidemic size is investigated. For the case of a disease spread solely by carriers when the two types of infective are carriers and clinical infectives the large population version of a model proposed by Downton (1968) is further developed and shown under appropriate circumstances to closely approximate Downton's model.