The interest in business-cycle asymmetry has been
steadily increasing over the past 15 years. Most research has focused on
the different behavior of macroeconomic variables during expansions and
contractions, which by now is well documented. Recent evidence suggests that
such a two-phase characterization of the business cycle might be too
restrictive. In particular, it might be worthwhile to decompose the recovery
phase in a high-growth phase (immediately following the trough of a cycle)
and a subsequent moderate-growth phase. The issue of
multiple regimes in the business cycle is addressed using
smooth-transition autoregressive (STAR) models. A possible
limitation of STAR models as they currently are used is that essentially
they deal with only two regimes. We propose a generalization of the STAR
model such that more than two regimes can be accommodated.
It is demonstrated
that the class of multiple-regime STAR (MRSTAR) models can be
obtained from the two-regime model in a simple way.
The main properties of the MRSTAR model and several issues that are
relevant for empirical specification are discussed in detail.
In particular, a Lagrange multiplier-type test is derived that can be
used to determine the appropriate number of regimes. A limited
simulation study indicates its practical usefulness.
Application of the new model class to U.S. real GNP provides evidence in
favor of the existence of multiple business-cycle phases.