A novel quantitative assessment of late Holocene precipitation in the Levant is presented, including mean and variance of annual precipitation and their trends. A stochastic framework was utilized and allowed, possibly for the first time, linking high-quality, reconstructed rises/declines in Dead Sea levels with precipitation trends in its watershed. We determined the change in mean annual precipitation for 12 specific intervals over the past 4500 yr, concluding that: (1) the twentieth century was substantially wetter than most of the late Holocene; (2) a representative reference value of mean annual precipitation is 75% of the present-day parameter; (3) during the late Holocene, mean annual precipitation ranged between −17 and +66% of the reference value (−37 to +25% of present-day conditions); (4) the driest intervals were 1500–1200 BC and AD 755–890, and the wettest intervals were 2500–2460 BC, 130–40 BC, AD 350–490, and AD 1770–1940; (5) lake-level rises and declines probably occurred in response to trends in precipitation means and are less likely to occur when precipitation mean is constant; (6) average trends in mean annual precipitation during intervals of ≥200 yr did not exceed 15 mm per decade. The precipitation trends probably reflect shifts in eastern Mediterranean cyclone tracks.

This paper explores the environmental conditions that faced the people of ancient Jawa during the Holocene, as well as previous prehistoric periods of the mid-late Pleistocene. Calcite speleothems in a lava tube are dated using the U-Th method, to marine oxygen isotope stage 7 from ∼ 250 to 240 ka and from ∼ 230 to ∼ 220 ka; and the stage 5/4 transition between ∼ 80 and 70 ka. The available evidence indicates general aridity of the Black Desert during most of the mid-late Quaternary, punctuated by short wetter periods, when the Mediterranean cyclonic systems intensified and penetrated the north Arabian Desert. These Mediterranean systems had a longer and more intense effect on the desert fringe closer to the Mediterranean and only rarely penetrated the Black Desert of Jawa. The results do not exclude some increase of rainfall which did not change water availability dramatically during the warm Holocene. The ancient Jawa city appears to have depended on technological ability to build elaborate runoff-collection systems, which became the prime condition for success.

Trees growing on the Mt. Sedom salt diapir, at the southern Dead Sea shore, were swept by runoff into salt caves and subsequently deposited therein, sheltered from surface weathering. A subfossil Tamarix tree trunk, found in a remote section of Sedom Cave is radiocarbon dated to between ∼ 2265 and 1930 BCE. It was sampled in 109 points across the tree rings for carbon and nitrogen isotopes. The Sedom Tamarix demonstrates a few hundred years of 13C and 15N isotopic enrichment, culminating in extremely high δ13C and δ15N values. Calibration using modern Tamarix stable isotopes in various climatic settings in Israel shows direct relationship between isotopic enrichment and climate deterioration, particularly rainfall decrease. The subfossil Tamarix probably reflects an environmental crisis during the Intermediate Bronze Age, which subsequently killed the tree ∼ 1930 BCE. This period coincides with the largest historic fall of the Dead Sea level, as well as the demise of the large regional urban center of the 3rd millennium BCE. The environmental crisis may thus explain the archaeological evidence of a shift from urban to pastoral culture during the Intermediate Bronze Age. This was apparently the most severe long-term historical drought that affected the region in the mid-late Holocene.