We construct portfolios of stocks and bonds that are maximally
predictable with respect to a set of ex-ante observable economic
variables, and show that these levels of predictability are
statistically significant, even after controlling for data-snooping
biases. We disaggregate the sources of predictability by using
several asset groups — sector portfolios, market-capitalization
portfolios, and stock/bond/utility portfolios — and find that the
sources of maximal predictability shift considerably across asset
classes and sectors as the return horizon changes. Using three
out-of-sample measures of predictability — forecast errors, Merton's
market-timing measure, and the profitability of asset-allocation
strategies based on maximizing predictability — we show that the
predictability of the maximally predictable portfolio is genuine and
economically significant.