As the conflict in Donbas stabilized, Ukraine and Russia reached an impasse over how the Minsk agreements should be implemented. Ukraine gradually strengthened its ties with Europe, and secured the separation of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church from Moscow’s control. The election of Volodymyr Zelensky in 2019 led to hopes for a breakthrough in negotiations, but little progress was made. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin enacted constitutional changes that would potentially keep him in power until 2036. While not quite frozen, the conflict appeared likely to endure at a manageable level of violence, potentially for many years.

The delay of the Association Agreement spurred protests, and violent repression caused them to grow. Yanukovych’s ouster outraged Putin, who again saw a revolution thwart Russia’s position in Ukraine. He saw an irresistible opportunity to respond. Seizing Crimea regained a territory Russia had always wanted; it showed that Russia could defy the West; it boosted Putin’s domestic popularity; and it hamstrung Ukraine’s new government. The conflict then spread to eastern Ukraine, where the shooting down of a passenger aircraft dramatically increased international outrage at Russia’s actions. The West enacted sanctions, while the conflict itself stabilized territorially in the February 2015 Minsk-2 agreement.