The long-tailed Luria–Delbrück distribution arises in connection with the ‘random mutation’ hypothesis (whereas the ‘directed adaptation' hypothesis is thought to give a Poisson distribution). At time t the distribution depends on the parameter m = gNt/(a + g) where Nt is the current population size and g/(a + g) is the relative mutation rate (assumed constant). The paper identifies three models for the distribution in the existing literature and gives a fourth model. Ma et al. (1992) recently proved that there is a remarkably simple recursion relation for the Luria–Delbrück probabilities pn and found that asymptotically pn ≈ c/n2; their numerical studies suggested that c = 1 when the parameter m is unity. Cairns et al. (1988) had previously argued and shown numerically that Pn = Σj ≧ n Pj ≈ m/n. Here we prove that n(n + 1)pn < m(1 + 11m/30) for n = 1, 2, ···, and hence prove that as n becomes large n(n + 1)pn, ≈ m; the result mPn ≈ m follows immediately.
