For seed banks showing seasonal changes in their dormancy level, the possibility of predicting temporal patterns of emergence depends on establishing a robust relationship between temperature and the rate of dormancy loss and induction. However, although the effect of temperature on dormancy loss has been extensively studied, less work has been advocated to the quantification of temperature effects on dormancy induction. In the present work, we quantified temperature regulation of dormancy induction in Polygonum aviculare seeds using the hydrotime model. To study induction into secondary dormancy, seeds previously released from primary dormancy through stratification at 5°C were stored at dormancy-inductive temperatures of 10, 15, 20 and 25°C for different periods. During storage, seeds were germinated at different temperatures and water potentials, and hydrotime model parameters were derived. Changes in hydrotime model parameters (mean base water potential for germination and its standard deviation, and the hydrotime required for germination) during dormancy induction were described by adjusting exponential equations. Obtained results indicated a minimum temperature for dormancy induction of 8.7°C and the existence of a bi-linear relationship between rate of induction into secondary dormancy and storage temperature, in which storage temperatures around 25°C showed a higher dormancy induction rate than those below 20°C. Developed model equations were then used to predict changes in germination behaviour during dormancy induction at different temperatures, showing a good agreement between simulated and observed values.

The sensitivity of Polygonum aviculare L. seeds to the dormancy-breaking effect of cycle-doses of fluctuating temperature changes as seeds lose dormancy due to storage under stratification temperatures. Sensitivity changes during seed stratification were characterized by a decrease in the number of cycles required to saturate the germination response, and by a progressive loss of the requirement for temperature fluctuations for dormancy breakage in increasing fractions of the seed population. The rate of these changes was dependent on the temperature at which seeds were stored for stratification; lower storage temperatures produced higher rates of change than higher storage temperatures. Germination curves, obtained in response to the effect of fluctuating temperature cycle-doses for seeds stratified at variable temperatures and times of storage, were brought to a common stratification thermal time (Stt) scale by accumulating thermal time units under a threshold temperature for dormancy loss to occur. Results showed that those seeds that had accumulated similar Stt units during stratification under different storage temperatures presented a similar germination response. Therefore, response-curve functions were adjusted to germination data of exhumed seeds that had accumulated similar Stt, obtaining a family of germination response curves in relation to Stt accumulation during storage. Based on these results, a simulation model was constructed relating dynamic changes in the parameters that determine germination response curves in relation to Stt accumulation. The model was tested against independent data, showing a good description of the dynamics of changes in the fraction of the seed population requiring temperature fluctuation for dormancy breakage as dormancy release progressed.

It has been hypothesized that fluctuations in soil water content may affect the dormancy status of weed seed banks under field conditions. In this paper, we present results showing that fluctuations in soil water content affect the dormancy status of buried seeds of Polygonum aviculare L. stored at dormancy-releasing temperatures. Effects of fluctuations in soil water content on the dormancy status of P. aviculare seeds were evaluated by comparing changes in the range of temperatures and water potentials permissive for germination, and in the sensitivity to fluctuating temperatures, between seeds subjected to a moist soil regime (MS) or to a fluctuating soil water content regime (FS). In comparison to the dormancy release pattern observed for seeds subjected to MS, seeds subjected to FS generally showed an increase in their dormancy level after periods of storage under dry soil conditions, and a decrease in their dormancy level after periods of storage under moist soil conditions. These effects were more pronounced during early stages of the storage period, producing larger changes in the thermal and water potential range for seed germination than in the sensitivity of seeds to fluctuating temperatures. Seeds subjected to FS generally exhibited a lower mean low-limit temperature, lower mean thermal time and hydrotime requirements for germination, and a higher proportion of the seed population with the capacity to germinate in situ, than seeds subjected to MS. The results obtained suggested that fluctuations in soil water content could be an additional factor affecting dormancy and weed emergence patterns under field conditions.

A model for simulating Polygonum aviculare L. seed dormancy loss in relation to stratification temperature was developed. The model employs the lower limit temperature for germination (Tl) as an index of seed population dormancy status. While population mean for Tl (Tl(50)) and Tl distribution within the population (σTl) are allowed to vary as seeds are released from dormancy, other thermal parameters characterizing the germination thermal responses (base, optimal and maximal temperatures, and thermal time required for germination) and the higher limit temperature for germination (Th) are held constant. In order to relate changes in Tl(50) and σTl to variable time and temperature, a stratification thermal time index (Stt) was developed, which consists of the accumulation of thermal time units under a threshold temperature for dormancy loss to occur. Therefore, Tl(50) and σTl varied in relation to the accumulation of Stt according to time and temperature. To derive model equations, changes in seed population thermal parameters were estimated for buried seeds stored at 1.6, 7 and 12°C for 110 d. Seeds were exhumed at regular intervals, and were incubated at 15°C and at a gradually increasing temperature regime in the range 6–25°C. The germination time-course curves obtained were reproduced using a mathematical model. Thermal parameters that best fit simulated and experimentally obtained germination time-course curves were determined. Model performance was evaluated against data of two unrelated experiments, showing acceptable prediction of timing and percentage of germination of seeds exhumed from field and controlled temperature conditions.