Many dietary guidelines recommend restricting the consumption of processed red meat (PRM) in favour of healthier foods such as fish, to reduce the risk of chronic conditions such as hypertension and diabetes. The objective of this study was to estimate the potential effect of replacing PRM for fatty fish, lean fish, red meat, eggs, pulses, or vegetables, on the risk of incident hypertension and diabetes. This was a prospective study of women in the E3N cohort study. Cases of diabetes and hypertension were based on self-report, specific questionnaires, and drug reimbursements. In the main analysis, information on regular dietary intake was assessed with a single food history questionaire, and food substitutions were modelled using cox proportional hazard models. 95 % confidence intervals were generated via bootstrapping. 71 081 women free of diabetes and 45 771 women free of hypertension were followed for an average of 18·7 and 18·3 years, respectively. 2681 incident cases of diabetes and 12 327 incident cases of hypertension were identified. Relative to PRM, fatty fish was associated with a 15 % lower risk of diabetes (HR = 0·85, 95 CI (0·73, 0·97)) and hypertension (HR = 0 85 (0·79, 0·91)). Between 3 and 10 % lower risk of hypertension or diabetes was also observed when comparing PRM with vegetables, unprocessed red meat or pulses. Relative to PRM, alternative protein sources such as fatty fish, unprocessed red meat, vegetables or pulses was associated with a lower risk of hypertension and diabetes.

Evidence suggests that processed red meat consumption is a risk factor for CVD and type 2 diabetes (T2D). This analysis investigates the association between dietary patterns, their processed red meat contributions, and association with blood biomarkers of CVD and T2D, in 786 Irish adults (18–90 years) using cross-sectional data from a 2011 national food consumption survey. All meat-containing foods consumed were assigned to four food groups (n 502) on the basis of whether they contained red or white meat and whether they were processed or unprocessed. The remaining foods (n 2050) were assigned to twenty-nine food groups. Two-step and k-means cluster analyses were applied to derive dietary patterns. Nutrient intakes, plasma fatty acids and biomarkers of CVD and T2D were assessed. A total of four dietary patterns were derived. In comparison with the pattern with lower contributions from processed red meat, the dietary pattern with greater processed red meat intakes presented a poorer Alternate Healthy Eating Index (21·2 (sd 7·7)), a greater proportion of smokers (29 %) and lower plasma EPA (1·34 (sd 0·72) %) and DHA (2·21 (sd 0·84) %) levels (P<0·001). There were no differences in classical biomarkers of CVD and T2D, including serum cholesterol and insulin, across dietary patterns. This suggests that the consideration of processed red meat consumption as a risk factor for CVD and T2D may need to be re-assessed.