To advance knowledge regarding the etiology of eating disorders, we characterized the sequencing of eating disorder symptom emergence for adolescent girls who subsequently developed anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), binge eating disorder (BED), and purging disorder (PD) for community-recruited adolescents and tested whether prodromal symptoms increased risk for future onset of each eating disorder.

Data collected from adolescent girls (N = 496; M age = 13.02, s.d. = 0.73) who completed a diagnostic interview annually over an 8-year period were used to address these aims.

For all four eating disorders, compensatory weight-control behaviors were the first behavioral symptom to emerge and weight/shape overvaluation was the first cognitive symptom to emerge. Moreover, lower-than-expected BMI predicted future AN onset, binge eating and all cognitive symptoms predicted future BN onset, weight/shape overvaluation predicted future BED onset, and compensatory behavior and all cognitive symptoms predicted future PD onset. These predictive effects were small-to-large in magnitude. Collectively, prodromal symptoms predicted an eating disorder onset with 83–87% accuracy.

Results suggest that compensatory weight-control behaviors and weight/shape overvaluation typically emerge before other prodromal symptoms in all eating disorders during adolescence. Moreover, different prodromal symptoms seem to predict future onset of different eating disorders. Screening adolescent girls for these prodromal symptoms and implementing indicated prevention programs designed to reduce these symptoms may prove effective in preventing future onset of eating disorders.

Several multivariate algorithms have been developed for predicting psychosis, as attempts to obtain better prognosis prediction than with current clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria. The models have typically been based on samples from specialized clinics. We evaluated the generalizability of 19 prediction models to clinical practice in an unselected adolescent psychiatric sample.

In total, 153 adolescent psychiatric patients in the Helsinki Prodromal Study underwent an extensive baseline assessment including the SIPS interview and a neurocognitive battery, with 50 participants (33%) fulfilling CHR criteria. The adolescents were followed up for 7 years using comprehensive national registers. Assessed outcomes were (1) any psychotic disorder diagnosis (n = 18, 12%) and (2) first psychiatric hospitalization (n = 25, 16%) as an index of overall deterioration of functioning.

Most models improved the overall prediction accuracy over standard CHR criteria (area under the curve estimates ranging between 0.51 and 0.82), although the accuracy was worse than that in the samples used to develop the models, also when applied only to the CHR subsample. The best models for transition to psychosis included the severity of positive symptoms, especially delusions, and negative symptoms. Exploratory models revealed baseline negative symptoms, low functioning, delusions, and sleep problems in combination to be the best predictor of psychiatric hospitalization in the upcoming years.

Including the severity levels of both positive and negative symptomatology proved beneficial in predicting psychosis. Despite these advances, the applicability of extended psychosis-risk models to general psychiatric practice appears limited.