In this study we determined the probability of predator attacks on livestock around Bardia National Park, Nepal. We conducted semi-structured interviews to explore the patterns and factors affecting livestock losses in four administrative sectors of the Park's buffer zone. We developed models to investigate the overall probability of livestock loss, economic damage caused, and the respondents’ attitudes towards wildlife. The probability of leopard attacks on livestock was much higher (85% of all livestock lost to depredation) than that of tiger attacks (8%), and the northern sector experienced the highest loss of livestock (50% modelled probability of livestock loss) in the buffer zone. Livestock loss was significantly related to the number of livestock owned by respondents, their ethnic group, and village distance to the Park boundary. Economic damage was influenced by buffer zone sector, number of livestock owned, and distance to the Park boundary. Conservation attitudes depended on respondents’ knowledge of wildlife, levels of education and self-sufficiency, and the probability of livestock being killed by leopards. Respondents who were male, highly educated and self-sufficient were most likely to support conservation. Tigers are tolerated based on religious beliefs, and these cultural values, together with the sharing of conservation benefits, facilitate conservation. Leopards, however, are not tolerated in the same way and are the most damaging predators.

A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for assessing the potential risk of dengue virus emergence and distribution in Western Australia (WA) is presented and used to identify possible hotspots of dengue outbreaks in summer and winter. The model assesses the probabilities of two kinds of events which must take place before an outbreak can occur: (1) introduction of the virus and mosquito vectors to places where human population densities are high; and (2) vector population growth rates as influenced by climatic factors. The results showed that if either Aedes aegypti or Ae. albopictus were to become established in WA, three centres in the northern part of the State (Kununurra, Fitzroy Crossing, Broome) would be at particular risk of experiencing an outbreak. The model can also be readily extended to predict the risk of introduction of other viruses carried by Aedes mosquitoes, such as yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika viruses.

The authors have reviewed over 60 texts on the subject of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM). In this paper they set out a summary of ERM based on three of those sources, selected for their relevance and breadth of view. The paper observes that the approaches described vary widely in nature. A separate ‘on-line” source is provided, which summarises key readings from the 60 texts. Combining findings from these texts with the authors' own experiences, the paper suggests some best practice checklists, designed to enable organisations to take stock of their current ERM frameworks. It discusses other aspects of ERM for practitioners, including extreme events, opportunity management and the link with corporate strategy. The paper looks at immediate and longer-term implications for actuaries in the United Kingdom, and then poses questions about future professional development and education. It suggests an emerging role for the ‘ERM actuary’, and, finally, it suggests future work to progress the development of ERM and the actuaries' role.