Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
  1. Home
  2. Search

Refine search

Refine search

Access:
Content type:
Publication date:
Apply   From and To filters
Subject: Show more
Journals Show more
Publishers: Show more
Societies Show more
Series: Show more
Collections: Show more

Actions for selected content:

Select all | Deselect all
  • View selected items
  • Export citations
  • Download PDF (zip)
  • Save to Kindle
  • Save to Dropbox
  • Save to Google Drive

Save Search

You can save your searches here and later view and run them again in "My saved searches".

Please provide a title, maximum of 40 characters.
Cancel
×

1 results

  • BAYESIAN MODELING OF ECONOMIES AND DATA REQUIREMENTS

  • Arnold Zellner, Bin Chen
  • Journal:
    Macroeconomic Dynamics / Volume 5 / Issue 5 / November 2001
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    27 March 2002, pp. 673-700

  • Marshallian demand, supply, and entry models are employed for major sectors of an economy that can be combined with factor market models for money, labor, capital, and bonds to provide a Marshallian macroeconomic model (MMM). Sectoral models are used to produce sectoral output forecasts, which are summed to provide forecasts of annual growth rates of U.S. real GDP. These disaggregative forecasts are compared to forecasts derived from models implemented with aggregate data. The empirical evidence indicates that it pays to disaggregate, particularly when employing Bayesian shrinkage forecasting procedures. Further, some considerations bearing on alternative model-building strategies are presented using the MMM as an example and describing its general properties. Last, data requirements for implementing MMMs are discussed.