Evidence for the existence of risk compensation behaviour in the operation of vessels is shown in the paper The Risk Homeostasis Theory (Baniela and Ríos, 2010). In that analysis, it is concluded that the people engaged in the commercial affairs of ships tend to exchange the level of safety standard of vessels for a more profitable and riskier activity, which makes the rate of shipping accidents fluctuate within certain limits. Since the different levels of power and motivation of those involved in the risk-taking process were not considered in that research, it is the aim of this paper to analyse, on the one hand, how the pressure of the shipping market influences the risk behaviour of shipping business decision-makers and to show, on the other hand, how this influence makes them alter their target level of risk and introduce risks related to low operating cost strategies on vessels. This behavioural adaptation to the shipping market demand has led the human element to be regarded as a factor of risk in the activity of commercial vessels. In this context, the increasing incidence of human errors has arisen as a consequence of practices and manning policies established by the managers of shipping companies.

In our paper The Risk Homeostasis Theory1, it was accepted that the behaviour of people involved in the operation of cargo carrying ships is conditioned to maximize the economic benefits of the amount of risk assumed in the transport. As a follow-up to that paper, the objective of this one is to investigate the relationship between the level of compliance of the cargo carrying vessels with international standards and the degree of severity of the incidents they are involved in. For this purpose, we analyse the same sample of 2,584 cargo carrying ships involved in incidents during 2005 and 2006 used in that investigation. The variables of the Paris MoU to identify substandard ships are used again to measure the standard level of ships and the degree of seriousness of incidents is determined by the number of days ships are under repair.

Statistics and information from the maritime industry show that the continuous advances in the safety of navigation do not reduce the occurrence of shipping casualties. This controversial fact leads the authors to analyse the applicability of the risk homeostasis theory to maritime transportation. With the aim of investigating this matter 2,584 ship incidents, which took place during the years 2005 and 2006, have been recorded and examined. The same variables which the Paris MOU usually employs to identify substandard ships (flag, classification society, age, type and size) have been used in this research to establish their level of safety in an effort to determine the relationship between that level and the occurrence of maritime incidents in the world cargo carrying fleet with appropriate statistical methods.

The Strait of Istanbul which constitutes one of the major and busiest seaways in the world links the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara, it is a narrow “S-shaped” channel, open day and night for international shipping. Currents and darkness are the two dominant factors causing marine casualties in the Bosphorus. In this regard, Yenikoy and Umuryeri (or Umur Banki) are the two critical areas where most of the stranding and grounding casualties occur as vessels negotiate sharp turns (80° at Yenikoy, 70° at Umuryeri). The casualty case investigations reveal that in most of the incidents, vessels lose their manoeuvrability in the course of taking a sharp turn with the current. The number of casualties occurring in darkness was found to be nearly twice the number of occurring in daylight. A total of 461 marine casualties of different types occurred in this tricky strip of water during the period 1953–2002, the majority being collisions. Since 1994 when the TSS was introduced there have been 82 marine casualties the majority of which have been groundings/strandings.

This paper examines marine casualties in-depth in relation to casualty types, numbers of ships, the localities where most incidents occur, and external factors such as currents and darkness that contribute to marine casualties in the Strait. The major factors are deduced in order to suggest possible solutions.