The covariance matrix of signals is one of the most essential information in multivariate analysis and other signal processing techniques. The estimation accuracy of a covariance matrix is degraded when some eigenvalues of the matrix are almost duplicated. Although the degradation is theoretically analyzed in the asymptotic case of infinite variables and observations, the degradation in finite cases are still open. This paper tackles the problem using the Bayesian approach, where the learning coefficient represents the generalization error. The learning coefficient is derived in a special case, i.e., the covariance matrix is spiked (all eigenvalues take the same value except one) and a shrinkage estimation method is employed. Our theoretical analysis shows a non-monotonic property that the learning coefficient increases as the difference of eigenvalues increases until a critical point and then decreases from the point and converged to the distinct case. The result is validated by numerical experiments.

We derive some decision rules to select best predictive regression models in a credibility context, that is, in a “random effects’ linear regression model with replicates. In contrast to usual model selection techniques on a collective level, our proposal allows to detect individual structures, even if they disappear in the collective.

We give exact, non-asymptotic results for the expected squared error loss for a predictor based on credibility estimation in different models. This involves correct accounting of random model parameters and the study of expected loss for shrinkage estimation. We support the theoretical properties of the new model selectors by a small simulation experiment.

Traditional credibility models have treated the process generating the losses as stable over time, perhaps with a deterministic trend imposed. However, there is ample evidence that these processes are not stable over time. What is required is a method that allows for time-varying parameters in the process, yet still provides the shrinkage needed for sound ratemaking. In this paper we use an automobile insurance example to illustrate how this can be accomplished.