Introduction:No epidemiological data exist concerning
the influence of an earthquake on the risk of
stroke. Whether the incidence of cerebrovascular
stroke increased after the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji
earthquake (EQ) in Japan and whether seismic
intensity affected stroke risk dose-dependently was
examined.
Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted
among residents, who were living in two towns on the
island of Awaji and were participants of the
National Health Insurance (NHI) program. The two
towns were divided into 11 districts and their
respective damage and socioeconomic states were
investigated. Reviewing the NHI documents issued
before and after the EQ, people who had strokes (9th
International Classification of Diseases, codes
430–431 or 433–434.9) were identified. Risk of
stroke in relation to the seismic intensities, was
assessed with the Cox proportional hazard model.
Results:Among subjects aged 40 to 99 years, 45 of 8,758
(0.514%) had a stroke the year before the EQ, 72 of
8,893 (0.810%) had a stroke in the first year
following the EQ, and 49 of 8,710 (0.566%) had a
stroke in the second year following the EQ. In
districts where the earthquake's intensity was ≤9.5
on the modified Mercalli intensity (MMI), compared
with the year prior to the EQ, the relative risk
(RR) of stroke was 2.4 (95% confidence interval (CI)
1.1, 5.0) in the first year following the EQ, after
adjusting for age, gender, and income. In that year,
compared with MMI of <8.5–9.0, RRs for 9.0–9.5
and ≥9.5 were 1.6 (CI 0.9, 2.1) and 2.0 (CI 1.1,
3.7), respectively (p for trend
0.02). No trend for the RR was observed in the year
before the EQ or in the second year following the
EQ.
Conclusion Stroke increased in the first year following
the EQ. The increase was associated with seismic
intensity in a dose-response manner. Results suggest
a potential threshold for RR of >2.0 in areas
near 9.5 on the MMI scale.