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swings in the zeitgeist

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6 - Events Are Practically Random
from Part IIA - The Democratic Transition
Martin Paldam, Aarhus Universitet, Denmark
Book:

The Grand Pattern of Development and the Transition of Institutions

Published online:

07 August 2021

Print publication:

19 August 2021, pp 94-108
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Summary

While the Jumps Model explains the changes caused by triggering events, Chapter 6 demonstrates that the events happen randomly. This is done in two ways: One is a statistical analysis trying to explain the binary event index. It appears that the standard development variables explain very little. The second is a study of the relevant articles in the Historical Archive of the Economist. One or more articles in the journal cover all 262 larger events found in the Polity P-index, 1960–2016. The articles all identify one (or more) triggering events. It appears that most are domestic political events. They are very diverse, so most have to be classified as practically exogenous. The second biggest causal factor is the external political event, associated to swings in the zeitgeist. System changes are independent of external economic events.

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6 - Events Are Practically Random

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6 - Events Are Practically Random

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