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6 results

  • International agricultural trade forecasting using machine learning

  • Munisamy Gopinath, Feras A. Batarseh, Jayson Beckman, Ajay Kulkarni, Sei Jeong
  • Journal:
    Data & Policy / Volume 3 / 2021
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    22 January 2021, e1
    • Article
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  • Focusing on seven major agricultural commodities with a long history of trade, this study employs data-driven analytics to decipher patterns of trade, namely using supervised machine learning (ML), as well as neural networks. The supervised ML and neural network techniques are trained on data until 2010 and 2014, respectively. Results show the high relevance of ML models to forecasting trade patterns in near- and long-term relative to traditional approaches, which are often subjective assessments or time-series projections. While supervised ML techniques quantified key economic factors underlying agricultural trade flows, neural network approaches provide better fits over the long term.

  • 4 - The Trade Effects of Environmental Provisions in Preferential Trade Agreements

  • from Part II - Top-Down: Public Approaches to Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals
  • Edited by Cosimo Beverelli, Jürgen Kurtz, European University Institute, Florence, Damian Raess
  • Book:
    International Trade, Investment, and the Sustainable Development Goals
    Published online:
    18 September 2020
    Print publication:
    01 October 2020, pp 111-139

  • Summary

    The international community has acknowledged that international trade can be an effective means of helping to achieve the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Traditionally, preferential trade agreements (PTAs) were designed to promote trade flows. PTAs have become more comprehensive and now also cover non-economic policy areas, such as the environment. This chapter examines whether the inclusion of environmental provisions in PTAs changes the observed overall positive contribution that PTAs make to economic outcomes and thereby to the economic objectives of the SDGs. Specifically, we ask whether the inclusion of environmental provisions in PTAs reduces export flows between PTA partner countries. Using a novel data set on environmental provisions in PTAs, we estimate gravity type panel regressions. We find that membership in PTAs including more environmental provisions is associated with less trade among trade partners compared to PTAs that include less or no environmental provisions. This negative effect of environmental provisions is fully driven by the negative effect on South–North trade flows, i.e. exports from developing to high-income countries.

  • SOVEREIGN DEFAULT, TRADE, AND TERMS OF TRADE

  • Grace Weishi Gu
  • Journal:
    Macroeconomic Dynamics / Volume 25 / Issue 6 / September 2021
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    02 September 2019, pp. 1346-1380

  • Sovereign defaults are associated with income and trade reductions and terms-of-trade deterioration. This paper develops a two-country model to study the interactions between income, trade, terms of trade, and foreign-debt default risk and default events. Such default risk and events are costly because they adversely affect the demand for a borrower country’s intermediate goods exports and its income. Consequently, trade flows change due to the income loss and consumption home bias. The defaulter’s terms of trade also deteriorate endogenously, which accelerates its income and trade losses. The model produces procyclical imports, exports, terms of trade, and other empirical features of emerging countries’ business cycles and default episodes.

  • Part III - Trade and Mobility in a Connected Environment

  • Edited by Roger S. Bagnall, Gaëlle Tallet
  • Book:
    The Great Oasis of Egypt
    Published online:
    12 July 2019
    Print publication:
    18 July 2019, pp 133-216

  • Summary

    The oases of Kharga and Dakhla have been linked administratively from ancient times into the present. This chapter presents a study of the two main physical routes that connected the two oases: the Darb al-Ghubari and the Darb Ain Amur. Cairns, tracks, rock art, inscriptions, ceramics, and other small finds serve to identify the tracks and stopping points along the way. These paths, particularly the Darb Ain Amur, evolved over time, reflecting the changing environment and modes of transport that were used to make the journey from pharaonic to Roman times.

  • 9 - And the Potsherds? Some Avenues of Reflection and Synthesis on the Pottery of the Great Oasis

  • from Part III - Trade and Mobility in a Connected Environment
  • Edited by Roger S. Bagnall, Gaëlle Tallet
  • Book:
    The Great Oasis of Egypt
    Published online:
    12 July 2019
    Print publication:
    18 July 2019, pp 152-167

  • Summary

    This chapter concerns the different approaches (statistic, spatial analysis) using ceramic and amphoras as markers of the “culture materielle” in the Great Oasis. Starting from the Duch (ancient Kysis) material, the studies, in collaboration with geomorphologists and young scholars involved in the Project Partner University Fund, have focused on El-Deir in Kharga and Amheida (ancient Trimithis) in Dakhla. The first results are revealing some aspects, specially for the Roman and Byzantine periods, of the economic (production, trade), social, and cultural environment of the Great Oasis and the connectivity of the oasian populations.

  • CHAPTER IV - The Changing Patterns of Trade

  • Edited by E. E. Rich, C. H. Wilson
  • General editor D. C. Coleman, P. Mathias, M. M. Postan
  • Book:
    The Cambridge Economic History of Europe
    Published online:
    28 March 2008
    Print publication:
    08 September 1977, pp 185-289

  • Summary

    Foreign trade was the great wheel setting the machinery of society into motion and was the driving force of the nation. The ship was often chosen as the symbol of this dynamic. This chapter first describes the role played by the shipping industry in the trade of agricultural goods. It was not only around the sea-routes that international trade flourished, however. Professor van der Wee has drawn attention to the motor function performed by the transcontinental route between Flanders and south Germany-Italy. The chapter then looks at consumption, with a view to discovering other features of interest to an analysis of some of the fundamental conditions of European trade in the period 1500-1750. One way of establishing a birds eye view of European trade is to approach it geographically. Another is to analyse trade in terms of commodities. The chapter describes both these complementary approaches. Finally, it focuses on European markets and how they were organized.