Non-cholera Vibrio (NCV) species are important causes of disease. These pathogens are thermophilic and climate change could increase the risk of NCV infection. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a ‘natural experiment’ that may presage ocean warming effects on disease incidence. In order to evaluate possible climatic contributions to observed increases in NCV infection, we obtained NCV case counts for the United States from publicly available surveillance data. Trends and impacts of large-scale oceanic phenomena, including ENSO, were evaluated using negative binomial and distributed non-linear lag models (DNLM). Associations between latitude and changing risk were evaluated with meta-regression. Trend models demonstrated expected seasonality (P < 0.001) and a 7% (6.1%–8.1%) annual increase in incidence from 1999 to 2014. DNLM demonstrated increased vibriosis risk following ENSO conditions over the subsequent 12 months (relative risk 1.940, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.298–2.901). The ‘relative–relative risk’ (RRR) of annual disease incidence increased with latitude (RRR per 10° increase 1.066, 95% CI 1.027–1.107). We conclude that NCV risk in the United States is impacted by ocean warming, which is likely to intensify with climate change, increasing NCV risk in vulnerable populations.

Because of public health concerns, regulators are considering requiring post-harvest treatment of halfshell and shucked oysters by wholesalers and processors. Two recently developed post-harvest treatment technologies may actually reduce the costs of producing shucked oysters, but would increase the costs of halfshell oysters. An interregional model of the wholesale oyster industry is developed to estimate the effects of treatment requirements on prices, output, and employment. If post-harvest treatment is required for all Gulf oysters, price increases are estimated to be less than 20% and, in some cases, prices decrease. Results indicate producer and consumer losses in the halfshell market are partially or more than offset by gains in the shucked market.

A web-based contingent behavior analysis was developed to quantify the effect of both negative and positive information treatments and post harvest processes on demand for oysters. Results from a panel model indicate that consumers of raw and cooked oysters behave differently after news of an oyster-related human mortality. While cooked oyster consumers take precautionary measures against risk, raw oyster consumers exhibit optimistic bias and increase their consumption level. Further, by varying the source of a counter-information treatment, we find that source credibility impacts behavior. Oyster consumers, and in particular, raw oyster consumers, are most responsive to information provided by a not-for-profit, nongovernmental organization. Finally, post harvest processing of oysters has no impact on demand.

Vibrio vulnificus (Vv) can result in severe disease. Although pre-existing liver disease is a recognized risk factor for serious infection, the relative importance of other comorbidities has not been fully assessed. We analysed reports of Vv infections submitted to CDC from January 1988 to September 2006 in order to assess the role of pre-existing conditions contributing to severe outcomes. A total of 1212 patients with Vv infection were reported. Only patients with liver disease [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 5·1)] were more likely to become septic when exposure was due to contaminated food. Patients with liver disease (aOR 4·1), a haematological disease (aOR 3·2), or malignancy (aOR 3·2) were more likely to become septic when infection was acquired via a non-foodborne exposure. As such, patients with these pre-existing medical conditions should be advised of the risk of life-threatening illness after eating undercooked contaminated seafood or exposing broken skin to warm seawater.

This study characterized the current epidemiology of vibrio infections in Florida and examined cases reported from 1998 to 2007. Logistic regression was used to determine risk of death. There were 834 vibrio infections in 825 individuals (average annual incidence rate 4·8/1 000 000). Common Vibrio species reported were Vibrio vulnificus (33%), V. parahaemolyticus (29%), and V. alginolyticus (16%). Most exposures were attributed to wounds (42%), and the most common clinical syndromes were wound infections (45%) and gastroenteritis (42%). Almost half of individuals reported an underlying health condition. Risk of death was associated with any underlying condition and increased with the number of conditions (P<0·0001). In Florida, incidence of vibriosis associated with raw oyster consumption has decreased while incidence associated with wound infections has increased. Most prevention efforts to date have focused on oyster consumption. New educational messages focusing on the risk of vibriosis from wound infections should target high-risk populations.

In 1996 an outbreak of severe soft tissue infections caused by Vibrio vulnificus unexpectedly erupted in fish consumers in Israel with relatively little morbidity in fish farmers. To test the hypothesis that recurrent exposure of fishermen to the virulent strain may have provided protection against severe or symptomatic disease, we investigated the association between the immune response to V. vulnificus biotype 3 lipopolysaccharide (BT3 LPS) and disease susceptibility in fish farmers and fish consumers. Serum samples were tested for IgA and IgG of anti-BT3 LPS in fishermen and fish consumers who suffered from V. vulnificus BT3 infections and their matched controls. Pre-existing levels of IgG (IgG0) of anti-BT3 LPS were significantly lower in diseased fishermen who developed disease associated with the homologous biotype, compared to controls. In multivariate analysis, levels of IgG0 anti-BT3 LPS remained the only variable significantly associated with disease occurrence in fishermen. Higher levels of pre-existing IgG anti-BT 3 LPS antibodies may be associated with protection against severe or symptomatic disease with the homologous biotype in fishermen but not in subjects from the general public.