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biasedness of pre-sale estimates

Recherches Économiques de Louvain/ Louvain Economic Review (1)

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Art experts and auctions Are pre-sale estimates unbiased and fully informative?*
Luc Bauwens, Victor Ginsburgh
Journal:

Recherches Économiques de Louvain/ Louvain Economic Review / Volume 66 / Issue 2 / 2000

Published online by Cambridge University Press:

17 August 2016, pp. 131-144

Print publication:

2000
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Public sales art catalogues include low and high pre-sale price estimates by experts. This makes it possible to analyze whether pre-sale estimates are unbiased predictors of realized prices. Unbiasedness is tested using a sample of some 1,600 lots of English silver auctioned by Christie’s and Sotheby’s. Results show that estimates are slightly (but significantly) biased and that experts do not use all the information that is available to them when they make their estimates.