Evaluation of lifetime productivity is sensible to target interventions for improving productivity of smallholder dairy systems in the highlands of East Africa, because cows are normally not disposed of based on productive reasons. Feeding strategies and involuntary culling may have long-term effects on productive (and therefore economic) performance of dairy systems. Because of the temporal scale needed to evaluate lifetime productivity, experimentation with feedstuffs in single lactations is not enough to assess improvements in productivity. A dynamic modelling approach was used to explore the effect of feeding strategies on the lifetime productivity of dairy cattle. We used LIVSIM (LIVestock SIMulator), an individual-based, dynamic model in which performance depends on genetic potential of the breed and feeding. We tested the model for the highlands of Central Kenya, and simulated individual animals throughout their lifetime using scenarios with different diets based on common feedstuffs used in these systems (Napier grass, maize stover and dairy concentrates), with and without imposing random mortality on different age classes. The simulations showed that it is possible to maximise lifetime productivity by supplementing concentrates to meet the nutrient requirements of cattle during lactation, and during early development to reduce age at first calving and extend productive life. Avoiding undernutrition during the dry period by supplementing the diet with 0.5 kg of concentrates per day helped to increase productivity and productive life, but in practice farmers may not perceive the immediate economic benefits because the results of this practice are manifested through a cumulative, long-term effect. Survival analyses indicated that unsupplemented diets prolong calving intervals and therefore, reduce lifetime productivity. The simulations with imposed random mortality showed a reduction of 43% to 65% in all productivity indicators. Milk production may be increased on average by 1400 kg per lactation by supplementing the diet with 5 kg of concentrates during early lactation and 1 kg during late lactation, although the optimal supplementation may change according to milk and concentrate prices. Reducing involuntary culling must be included as a key goal when designing interventions to improve productivity and sustainability of smallholder dairy systems, because increasing lifetime productivity may have a larger impact on smallholders’ income than interventions targeted to only improving daily milk yields through feeding strategies.
