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China's green transition is often perceived as a lesson in authoritarian efficiency. In just a few years, the state managed to improve air quality, contain dissent, and restructure local industry. Much of this was achieved through top-down, 'blunt force' solutions, such as forcibly shuttering or destroying polluting factories. This book argues that China's blunt force regulation is actually a sign of weak state capacity and ineffective bureaucratic control. Integrating case studies with quantitative evidence, it shows how widespread industry shutdowns are used, not to scare polluters into respecting pollution standards, but to scare bureaucrats into respecting central orders. These measures have improved air quality in almost all Chinese cities, but at immense social and economic cost. This book delves into the negotiations, trade-offs, and day-to-day battles of local pollution enforcement to explain why governments employ such costly measures, and what this reveals about a state's powers to govern society.
This chapter tests the theory proposed in Chapter 3: that blunt force regulation is used not to scare polluters into respecting pollution standards, but to scare bureaucrats into respecting central orders. It begins with process tracing on a case of blunt force regulation from southern China to show that two common explanations for this phenomenon – deterring excess pollution and reducing industrial overcapacity – fail to account for local authorities’ indiscriminate shutdown of polluting industries. Instead, the sequence of events reveals how local officials undertook blunt force regulation in response to sudden scrutiny from higher-level officials. Quantitative methods are then used to test this theory on a national scale. Results demonstrate that cities in which local officials were underenforcing pollution regulations were more likely to be subjected to blunt force pollution regulation than those with high levels of pollution or industrial overcapacity. These findings reveal that blunt force regulation is undertaken as a form of bureaucratic control.
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