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  • 9 - Data Assimilation of Volcanic Clouds: Recent Advances and Implications on Operational Forecasts

  • from Part II - ‘Fluid’ Earth Applications: From the Surface to the Space
  • Edited by Alik Ismail-Zadeh, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany, Fabio Castelli, Università degli Studi, Florence, Dylan Jones, University of Toronto, Sabrina Sanchez, Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, Germany
  • Book:
    Applications of Data Assimilation and Inverse Problems in the Earth Sciences
    Published online:
    20 June 2023
    Print publication:
    06 July 2023, pp 144-156

  • Summary

    Abstract: Operational forecasts of volcanic clouds are a key decision-making component for civil protection agencies and aviation authorities during the occurrence of volcanic crises. Quantitative operational forecasts are challenging due to the large uncertainties that typically exist on characterising volcanic emissions in real time. Data assimilation, including source term inversion, has long been recognised by the scientific community as a mechanism to reduce quantitative forecast errors. In terms of research, substantial progress has occurred during the last decade following the recommendations from the ash dispersal forecast workshops organised by the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The meetings held in Geneva in 2010–11 in the aftermath of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption identified data assimilation as a research priority. This Chapter reviews the scientific progress and its transfer into operations, which is leveraging a new generation of operational forecast products.