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With the increasing prevalence of big data and sparse data, and rapidly growing data-centric approaches to scientific research, students must develop effective data analysis skills at an early stage of their academic careers. This detailed guide to data modeling in the sciences is ideal for students and researchers keen to develop their understanding of probabilistic data modeling beyond the basics of p-values and fitting residuals. The textbook begins with basic probabilistic concepts, models of dynamical systems and likelihoods are then presented to build the foundation for Bayesian inference, Monte Carlo samplers and filtering. Modeling paradigms are then seamlessly developed, including mixture models, regression models, hidden Markov models, state-space models and Kalman filtering, continuous time processes and uniformization. The text is self-contained and includes practical examples and numerous exercises. This would be an excellent resource for courses on data analysis within the natural sciences, or as a reference text for self-study.
Without a robust evidence base to support recommendations for medical services at mass gatherings (MGs), levels of care will continue to vary and preventable morbidity and mortality will exist. Accordingly, researchers and clinicians publish case reports and case series to capture and explain some of the health interventions, health outcomes, and host community impacts of MGs. Streamlining and standardizing post-event reporting for MG medical services and associated health outcomes could improve inter-event comparability, thereby supporting and promoting growth of the evidence base for this discipline. The present paper is focused on theory building, proposing a set of domains for data that may support increasingly comprehensive, yet lean, reporting on the health outcomes of MGs. This paper is paired with another presenting a proposal for a post-event reporting template.
Methods:
The conceptual categories of data presented are based on a textual analysis of 54 published post-event medical case reports and a comparison of the features of published data models for MG health outcomes.
Findings:
A comparison of existing data models illustrates that none of the models are explicitly informed by a conceptual lens. Based on an analysis of the literature reviewed, four data domains emerged. These included: (i) the Event Domain, (ii) the Hazard and Risk Domain, (iii) the Capacity Domain, and (iv) the Clinical Domain. These domains mapped to 16 sub-domains.
Discussion:
Data modelling for the health outcomes related to MGs is currently in its infancy. The proposed illustration is a set of operationally relevant data domains that apply equally to small, medium, and large-sized events. Further development of these domains could move the MG community forward and shift post-event health outcomes reporting in the direction of increasing consistency and comprehensiveness.
Conclusion:
Currently, data collection and analysis related to understanding health outcomes arising from MGs is not informed by robust conceptual models. This paper is part of a series of nested papers focused on the future state of post-event medical reporting.
Standardizing and systematizing the reporting of health outcomes from mass gatherings (MGs) will improve the quality of data being reported. Setting minimum standards for case reporting is an important strategy for improving data quality. This paper is one of a series of papers focused on understanding the current state, and shaping the future state, of post-event case reporting.
Methods:
Multiple data sources were used in creating a lean, yet comprehensive list of essential reporting fields, including a: (1) literature synthesis drawn from analysis of 54 post-event case reports; (2) comparison of existing data models for MGs; (3) qualitative analysis of gaps in current case reports; and (4) set of data domains developed based on the preceding sources.
Findings:
Existing literature fails to consistently report variables that may be essential for not only describing the health outcomes of a given event, but also for explaining those outcomes. In the context of current and future state reporting, 25 essential variables were identified. The essential variables were organized according to four domains, including: (i) Event Domain; (ii) Hazard and Risk Domain; (iii) Capacity Domain; and (iv) Clinical Domain.
Discussion:
The authors propose a first-generation template for post-event medical reporting. This template standardizes the reporting of 25 essential variables. An accompanying data dictionary provides background and standardization for each of the essential variables. Of note, this template is lean and will develop over time, with input from the international MG community. In the future, additional groups of variables may be helpful as “overlays,” depending on the event category and type.
Conclusions:
This paper presents a template for post-event medical reporting. It is hoped that consistent reporting of essential variables will improve both data collection and the ability to make comparisons between events so that the science underpinning MG health can continue to advance.
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