Environmental uncertainty is at the core of much of human activity, ranging fromdaily decisions by individuals to long-term policy planning by governments. Yet,there is little quantitative evidence on the ability of non-expert individualsor populations to forecast climate-related events. Here we report on data from a90-year old prediction game on a climate related event in Alaska: the Nenana IceClassic (NIC). Participants in this contest guess to the nearest minute when theice covering the Tanana River will break, signaling the start of spring.Previous research indicates a strong correlation between the ice breakup datesand regional weather conditions. We study betting decisions between 1955 and2009. We find the betting distribution closely predicts the outcome of thecontest. We also find a significant correlation between regional temperatures aswell as past ice breakups and betting behavior, suggesting that participantsincorporate both climate and historical information into theirdecision-making.
