Tropical deforestation is one of the most important components of global change. Rates of deforestation in Brazil, the nation with the single largest concentration of tropical forest on Earth, have fluctuated widely over the last twenty years. Based on local knowledge, such fluctuations have been variously attributed to a wide range of factors such as the expansion of cattle ranching and soybean farming, infrastructural expansion and the proliferation of paved and unpaved roads, macroeconomic shocks to the Brazilian economy and international exchange rates. Many, if not all, of these arguments are plausible explanations for temporal variation in deforestation rates, but have to date not been subjected to rigorous statistical testing; this study investigates the potential impact of these variables on Brazilian tropical deforestation over the period 1990–2005. When analysed at the basin-wide scale, nearly all variables were highly inter-correlated through time and were also closely correlated with deforestation rate, but appropriate time-series analysis found no statistical evidence that any of the variables have systematically caused variation in deforestation rates. Power analysis showed that the variables may exert small or medium influences on deforestation rates, but the impacts, if present, are not strong. Future analyses of time series data at finer spatial scales that exploit spatiotemporal variation in deforestation rates and in the hypothesized predictor variables may find significant causal processes that are overlooked when analysed at the basin-wide scale.

Since 1989 there has been a widespread collapse of public services and income support for older people in the Russian Federation. Pensions have declined in real value and frequently are paid late, the system of collective health care has become less reliable, and the social institutions and services that formerly helped disadvantaged older people overcome isolation and loneliness have almost entirely ceased to function. Most people's personal assets and savings are insufficient for a decent life, and many cannot now afford the medical services and medications that they need. Given the absence of formal or institutional support, older people in Russia have had to develop pragmatic coping mechanisms, most commonly based on informal social networks and diverse income-generating activities, including barter and exchange in the informal ‘grey’ and ‘black’ economies. The household budgets of many pensioners increasingly rely upon their ability to raise income through their labour and the exchange of goods, and the time that they devote to these productive activities is increasing sharply. In comparison with other age groups, older people in Russia own many private apartments, garages, and garden or allotment plots, and they are important factors in the generation of income. These assets are used first and foremost to avert poverty and degradation, and more generally to support the immediate and extended family. The current economic system and the inadequacies of the existing system of social protection perpetuate the distinctive coping strategies.