Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren), the native budworm, is an important highly polyphagous pest that has caused serious damage on a wide variety of crops in Australia. In Australia, its range overlaps that of its congener, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner), a notorious invasive pest globally. We used CLIMEX, a bioclimatic niche modelling software package, to estimate the potential geographical distribution of H. punctigera under current and future climates (A1B scenario). Under both current and future climate conditions, the model indicates that H. punctigera could establish throughout the tropics and subtropics. Comparing the potential distributions under each climate scenario revealed that in the future its potential distribution is likely to shift poleward and into higher altitudes, into areas that are currently too cold as observed in the South of Brazil, Europe, North America, South East Asia, and South Pacific Islands including New Zealand. The projected potential distribution can inform pre- and post-border biosecurity strategies for the management of this pest in each country.

Research concerning the effects of migrants on elder care in affluent receiving countries has been substantial, but we know little about the effects of migrant care on elder care in sending countries. There also is limited research on elder care in the context of the return migration of migrant care workers. This theoretical article explores the potential relevance of a social network perspective, which views individuals and countries as being interconnected even when they are miles apart. A multi-level framework that considers macro-, meso- and micro-level perspectives is introduced to better account for current migrant care arrangements. The macro-level perspective takes into account country-level characteristics including policies, geography and cultural preferences; the meso-level perspective takes into account the characteristics of the entire network, which may spread over different countries; and the micro-level perspective concerns the unique characteristics of the individuals who make up the network. This approach proposes that the effects of migrant home care go way beyond the care recipient–care-giver dyads or triads to incorporate many individuals and countries that are transnationally interconnected via the work of care. This article also aims to increase public and scientific awareness to the potential impact of migrant care and return migration on elder care in the sending countries by stressing a transnational social network perspective.

On the one hand, a recent study on sea turtle by-catch during surface longline fishing targeting swordfish in the western Mediterranean Sea showed that sea turtle by-catch is independent of fishing effort and other technological factors. When the distance to the coast increases, there is a higher probability of catching a loggerhead turtle. The authors proposed to avoid fisheries further than 35 nautical miles (approximately 65 km) from the coast. However, the proposed 35 nautical miles limit could be useful where the continental shelf is narrow, as in the Balearic Sea, and useless where it widens. On the other hand, ecological model validation is considered essential for management application. The objective of the present paper is to validate the new fisheries loggerhead by-catch model in different areas outside the Balearic Sea with wider continental shelves, aimed at maintaining sustainable fishing activity compatible with the conservation of the loggerhead populations. Our present results validate the previous model, and stress the importance of the eco-geographical variable distance to the coast in understanding the loggerhead by-catch (or incidental capture) per unit effort for the longline fisheries targeting swordfish.

We show that a branching random walk that is supercritical on is also supercritical, in a rather strong sense, when restricted to a large enough finite ball of This implies that the critical value of branching random walks on finite balls converges to the critical value of branching random walks on as the radius increases to infinity. Our main result also implies coexistence of an arbitrary finite number of species for an ecological model.

Models have been proposed in many diverse areas to generate a lognormal distribution and the underlying idea has always been some form of the law of proportionate effect. In a sense any model must resemble this recipe: take logs and apply the central limit theorem. Our model is no exception. However our formulation is designed to encompass the previous models and demonstrate that the fundamental concept is one of classification. This supersedes a multitude of models which incorporate a mechanism peculiar to a specific application in order to use the law of proportionate effect; we illustrate with applications of the model to ecology, econometrics and geostatistics.