An en primeur agreement is an unconventional forward contract. In this article, we provide a new conceptual framework for analyzing the properties of en primeur prices based on the cost of carry approach. The results, based upon Bayesian modeling, indicate that the cost of carry increases up to 0.9598 when en primeur and bottled wines are traded in parallel. Moreover, our findings confirm that price dispersion around the mean value is greater for en primeur wines (22.42%) than for standard bottled wines (8.2%) traded after the sale of en primeur wines has ended. (JEL Classifications: G12, G15, L66, Q02)

The influence of the wine rater Robert Parker Jr. on Bordeaux wine extended over a 40-year period, with a particular impact on en primeur wine prices. Consequently, his announcement in 2015 that he would no longer rate en primeur wines creates some uncertainty for many chateaux that have purposely designed their production with his palate and preferences in mind. Although the wine rater Neal Martin was named by Parker to be his successor in terms of en primeur wine ratings, there are several other wine critics who have consistently rated en primeur wines over several years. Consequently, we employ copula function analysis to explore which wine critics’ ratings exhibit the closest linear and nonlinear relationship, for right bank en primeur wines, with those of Parker. The study employs data over the period of 2005 through 2012, during which time several wine critics, including Neal Martin for the period of 2010–2012, rated en primeur wines alongside Parker. Our results indicate that of the wine critics that continue to rate en primeur wines, the ratings of James Suckling exhibit the highest rank correlation and also bivariate upper tail dependence, identified through copula function analysis, with those of Parker. (JEL Classifications: C19, G13, L66)

This paper examines the ratings of 12 influential wine critics on the Bordeaux en primeur market over the vintages 2003–2012. We hypothesize that wine experts differ significantly in their rating approach and influence on prices. We find that European critics are less transparent and in general more severe in their scoring than their American counterparts. Experts also appear to reach a relatively strong consensus on overall wine quality but have more diverse opinions on wines that achieve a surprising level of quality given the vintage, the ranking, or the appellation from which they originate. Our evidence also suggests that Robert Parker and Jean-Marc Quarin are the most influential critics, as a 10% surprise in their scores leads to a price increase of around 7%. We further find that their impact is higher for appellations and estates that are not covered by the official 1855 classification and for the best vintages. (JEL Classifications: C60, G11, Q11)