Although risk markers for depressive disorders (DD) are dynamic, especially during adolescence, few studies have examined how change in risk levels during adolescence predict DD onset during transition to adulthood. We compared two competing hypotheses of the dynamic effects of risk. The risk escalation hypothesis posits that worsening of risk predicts DD onset beyond risk level. The chronic risk hypothesis posits that persistently elevated risk level, rather than risk change, predicts DD onset.

Our sample included 393 girls (baseline age 13.5–15.5 years) from the adolescent development of emotions and personality traits project. Participants underwent five diagnostic interviews and assessments of risk markers for DD at 9-month intervals and were re-interviewed at a 6-year follow-up. We focused on 17 well-established risk markers. For each risk marker, we examined the prospective effects of risk level and change on first DD onset at wave six, estimated by growth curve modeling using data from the first five waves.

For 13 of the 17 depression risk markers, elevated levels of risk during adolescence, but not change in risk, predicted first DD onset during transition to adulthood, supporting the chronic risk hypothesis. Minimal evidence was found for the risk escalation hypothesis.

Participants who had a first DD onset during transition to adulthood have exhibited elevated levels of risk throughout adolescence. Researchers and practitioners should administer multiple assessments and focus on persistently elevated levels of risk to identify individuals who are most likely to develop DD and to provide targeted DD prevention.

Risk factors for depressive disorders (DD) change substantially over time, but the prognostic value of these changes remains unclear. Two basic types of dynamic effects are possible. The ‘Risk Escalation hypothesis’ posits that worsening of risk levels predicts DD onset above average level of risk factors. Alternatively, the ‘Chronic Risk hypothesis’ posits that the average level rather than change predicts first-onset DD.

We utilized data from the ADEPT project, a cohort of 496 girls (baseline age 13.5–15.5 years) from the community followed for 3 years. Participants underwent five waves of assessments for risk factors and diagnostic interviews for DD. For illustration purposes, we selected 16 well-established dynamic risk factors for adolescent depression, such as depressive and anxiety symptoms, personality traits, clinical traits, and social risk factors. We conducted Cox regression analyses with time-varying covariates to predict first DD onset.

Consistently elevated risk factors (i.e. the mean of multiple waves), but not recent escalation, predicted first-onset DD, consistent with the Chronic Risk hypothesis. This hypothesis was supported across all 16 risk factors.

Across a range of risk factors, girls who had first-onset DD generally did not experience a sharp increase in risk level shortly before the onset of disorder; rather, for years before onset, they exhibited elevated levels of risk. Our findings suggest that chronicity of risk should be a particular focus in screening high-risk populations to prevent the onset of DDs. In particular, regular monitoring of risk factors in school settings is highly informative.