We use a time-varying parameter dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility estimated using Bayesian methods to disentangle the relative importance of the common component in Federal Housing Finance Agency house price movements from state-specific shocks, over the quarterly period of 1975Q2 to 2017Q4. We find that the contribution of the national factor in explaining fluctuations in house prices is critical. We then use a Bayesian change-point vector autoregressive model that allows for different regimes throughout the sample period, to study the impact of aggregate supply, aggregate demand, (conventional) monetary policy, and term-spread shocks, identified based on sign restrictions on the national component of house price movements. While monetary policy and other shocks are found to be quite dominant early on, we find evidence that the national factor has been detached from the identified macroeconomic shocks since 2014, thus suggesting that a “national bubble” might be brewing again in the US housing market.

Diet is important in determining positive health outcomes. Income constraints are often provided as an explanation for poor dietary choices made by households. We test this hypothesis by exploiting shocks to household budgets driven by changes in house prices. Using a comprehensive panel of household food purchases matched to house price data, we find that house prices have a positive impact on food expenditure, but no impact on diet quality. We also find that the total quantity of food purchased increases as budget constraints are relaxed suggesting that changes in quantity are the primary driver of the expenditure change. Finally, we demonstrate that the impact of budget constraints is larger for lower income and younger age households.

The paper tests the idea that major demographic shifts can affect housing prices. We first build an overlapping generation model and analytically solve for the equilibrium price of the asset. The model predicts that economies with a higher fraction of old people in the overall population have lower house prices. We empirically test this hypothesis using data on house prices and demographic variables from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). We find that if population growth increases by one percentage point, house price growth increases by 1.4 percentage points.

The recent increase in Chinese house prices has led to concerns that China is vulnerable to asset price shocks. In this paper, we apply recently developed recursive unit root tests to spot the beginning and the end of potential speculative bubbles in Chinese house price cycles. Overall, we find that except for 2009–10 actual house prices are not significantly disconnected from fundamentals. Thus, the evidence for speculative house price bubbles in China is in general weak.

This paper seeks to provide a comprehensive overview of the long-term factors that explain divergent price levels across developed and emerging European countries. We provide stylised facts about the structural factors that influence market and non-market-based service, house and goods prices. The stylised facts show that there is much more behind differences in price levels among European countries than the much heralded Balassa-Samuelson effect and that prices other than those of market services are potential determinants of price levels and inflation rates in emerging Europe. Finally, we sketch out the possible mismatches between price level convergence and inflation rates.