For a large number of countries, we augment the specification of import demand in NiGEM by accounting for different import contents of individual expenditure components. Three examples illustrate that these changes have important implications for model outcomes. In the case of the recently enacted US tax reform and in a ‘hard landing’ scenario for China, spillovers become more pronounced while the domestic effects turn out more muted than in the default specification. The reverse is true for the ramifications of a public investment push in Germany. Hence, we believe that our add-on to NiGEM can be a useful tool for robustness exercises, in particular for spillover studies.

As U.S. lamb imports increased relative to domestic production, and the relative share of chilled to frozen lamb imports increased, importers of chilled lamb have become less responsive to domestic and import prices, while the direct opposite is the case for frozen lamb imports. From 1990 to 2003, chilled lamb imports from Australia and New Zealand became less and less responsive to U.S. prices, and frozen imports became more responsive. Unconditional own-price elasticities also show that, over time, imports of chilled lamb became less responsive to import prices while frozen imports became more responsive to import prices.

Using annual Japanese fresh fruit import data from 1971 to 1997, this study analyzes the import patterns of Japan's seven most popular fresh fruits by implementing and testing a general differential demand system that nests four alternative import demand specifications. When tested against the general system using the five-good case (bananas, grapefruits, oranges, and lemons and aggregating pineapples, berries, and grapes), the analysis rejects the Almost Ideal Demand System and National Bureau of Research specifications but does not reject Rotterdam and Central Bureau of Statistics models. When estimated using the six-good case (bananas, grapefruits, oranges, lemons, and pineapples and aggregating berries and grapes), the analysis rejects all specifications except the Rotterdam model.

Japanese import demand for U.S. beef and pork products and the effects on domestic livestock prices are econometrically estimated. Japan is the most important export market for U.S. beef and pork products. Results indicate foreign income, exchange rates, and protectionist measures are statistically significant. The comparative statics quantify the effects of recent economic volatility. For example, the 1995-1998 depreciation in the Japanese yen (39%) reduced U.S. slaughter steer and hog prices by $1.29 per cwt and $0.99 per cwt, respectively, while the 1994-1998 reduction in tariffs (14%) increased slaughter steer and hog prices by $0.49 per cwt and $0.33 per cwt, respectively. Livestock producers will continue to have a vested interest in Asian trade liberalization policies.

In responding to a comment article, we concur that quantifying U.S. livestock price response to changing Japanese meat import demand requires nonzero supply elasticities beyond one quarter. However, rigidities in market trade and empirical tests justify the inclusion of exchange rates in the short-run analysis. Producer welfare asymptotically approaches zero for increasing supply elasticities in the long run, but short-run transitions in producer surplus are meaningful to producers.

Indonesia is a rapidly growing and competitive market for U.S. fruit. A restricted, source-differentiated, almost ideal demand system is estimated for apples, oranges, grapes, and other fruit in Indonesia. The Marshallian expenditure elasticities for U.S. fruit are estimated to be between 1.01 and 1.21. For grapes and oranges, competition with other fruits appears to be more important than competition with other supply sources. For apples, strong sourcedifferentiated substitution relationships are found.

The quantity of paper recycled in the U.S. has more than doubled since 1985. International trade theory predicts that this will lead to reduced imports of paper, and a shift in domestic production toward waste paper intensive outputs (e.g., newsprint) and away from higher grade products such as printing/writing paper. Import demand elasticities with respect to input prices were estimated for newsprint, printing/writing, and all paper utilizing 20 years of monthly data. The empirical results confirm the predictions of theory, and illustrate a channel through which recycling may be more beneficial for U.S. industry than the domestic environment.

This paper considers an application of the differential approach to Japanese demand for beef imports from 1970 to 1993. Results of homothetic demand and negative (significant) own-price elasticities indicate that the Japanese did not discriminate against Australian beef, but the decrease in Australia's trade shares was due to changes in relative prices.

A recent study by Miljkovic, Marsh, and Brester estimates that reductions in the Japanese tariff-rate quota between 1993 and 2001 increased U.S. beef prices by $1.03 per cwt and yen depreciation between 1995 and 1998 reduced U.S. hog prices by $0.99 per cwt. Relaxing the assumption that U.S. beef and hog supplies are fixed cuts the total elasticities underlying these estimates by 50% or more. The upshot is that shocks in the Japanese market have little effect on U.S. beef and pork prices. Hence, producers may be better off focusing on domestic issues such as dietary concerns over red meat consumption.

Elasticities of import demand and supply often drive economic models, butfew empirical estimates of these elasticities exist for vegetables andfruits. For those that do exist, most are outdated. Because elasticitieschange over time as income, prices, and market conditions change, outdatedelasticity estimates may not be representative of changes in importquantities demanded or in acreages, yield, and quantities supplied.Moreover, import demand elasticities by country of origin for mostvegetables and fruits are nonexistent. This article presents research thatupdates elasticity estimates for each of the selected product categories andincludes production and trade implications.

Remarkable changes have occurred over the years in the domestic andinternational economic environment of the fruit and vegetable industry.These changes are partly driven by the North American Free Trade Agreement,nutrition policies, and development and enforcement of new food safetystandards. The articles in this invited session examined the effect of thesedrivers and their implication on the future competitiveness of the southernfruit and vegetable industry.

We estimate the demand for imported cotton in China and assess the competitiveness of cotton-exporting countries. Given the assertion that developing countries are negatively affected by U.S. cotton subsidies, our focus is the price competition between the United States and competing exporters (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, India, and Uzbekistan). We further project how U.S. programs affect China's imports by country. Results indicate that if U.S. subsidies make other exporting countries worse off, this effect is lessened when global prices respond accordingly. If subsidies are eliminated, China's cotton imports may not fully recover from the temporary spike in global prices.