Predicting future conservation needs can help inform conservation management but is subject to uncertainty. We measured deforestation rates during 2015–2017 for 114 protected areas in Madagascar, linked deforestation to the status of protection according to IUCN categories I–VI, used recent deforestation rates to extrapolate forest cover over 2017–2050 and linked the size of forest blocks to the projected persistence of lemur subpopulations. In the six IUCN categories for protected areas in Madagascar the median size of forest blocks is 9–37 km2 and median annual deforestation rates range from 0.02% in the single IUCN category III site to 0.19% in category II and 1.95% in category VI sites. In 2017, 40% of all forest blocks within protected areas were < 10 km2, and this is projected to increase to 45% in 2050. Apart from these small forest fragments, the modal site of forest blocks was 160–320 km2 in 2017, and this is projected to decrease to 80–160 km2 in 2050. The range of > 50% of all lemur species exclusively contains forest blocks of < 10 km2. The modal size of forest blocks > 10 km2 is predicted to remain at 120 km2 until 2050. Although uncertainty remains, these analyses provide hope that forest blocks within the protected areas of Madagascar will remain large enough to maintain lemur subpopulations for most species until 2050. This should allow sufficient time for the implementation of effective conservation measures.

Although roads are often assumed to be barriers to the dispersal of arboreal species, there has been little empirical testing of this assumption. If arboreal animals are unable to cross roads, population subdivision may occur, or resources may become inaccessible. We tested the hypothesis that Route Nationale 4 (RN4), a paved highway, was a barrier to movement and dispersal of the Endangered golden-brown mouse lemur Microcebus ravelobensis in Ankarafantsika National Park, in north-west Madagascar. During June–August 2015 we conducted a capture–mark–recapture study at three sites: two adjacent to RN4 and one within intact forest without a potential barrier. During 2,294 trap nights we captured 120 golden-brown mouse lemurs 1,032 times. In roadside habitats we captured significantly more males than females, whereas the opposite was the case in interior forest habitat. We detected eighteen crossings of highway transects by nine individuals; however, all potential dispersal events involved males. In roadside habitat, movement was significantly inhibited in both males and females. We present some of the first data on the effects of roads on movement patterns in arboreal Malagasy mammals, showing species- and sex-biased effects of roads as dispersal barriers. Our findings indicate that roads may not be complete barriers to dispersal in lemurs. We recommend that conservation managers and scientists examine explicitly the effects of roads and natural arboreal bridges in Madagascar in future studies.

The decline of the mongoose lemur Eulemur mongoz has resulted in a change of its conservation status from Vulnerable to Critically Endangered. Assessing the current threats to the species and the attitudes of the people coexisting with it is fundamental to understanding whether and how human impacts may affect populations. A questionnaire-based analysis was used to study the impact of agriculture and other subsistence activities, and local educational initiatives, on lemur abundance, group size and composition in the Comoros. On the islands of Mohéli and Anjouan we recorded 214 lemurs in 63 groups, the size and composition of which depended both on environmental parameters and the magnitude and type of anthropogenic pressure. There was no evidence of an impact of anthropogenic disturbance on abundance. In contrast, group size and composition were sensitive to human impacts. The most important threats were conflicts related to crop raiding, as well as illegal capture and hunting. The promotion of educational activities reduced the negative impact of hunting and illegal activities. These results highlight a need for urgent conservation measures to protect the species.

Information on the extent of bushmeat hunting is needed to assess the likely impact on hunted species, to provide information on the opportunity cost to local people of conservation, and to judge the efficacy of interventions at reducing pressure. However, where hunting is illegal, or socially unacceptable, respondents may not answer honestly to direct questions about hunting or consumption of bushmeat. We adapted a specialized method for investigating sensitive behaviours (the randomized response technique, RRT) and questioned 1,851 people in Madagascar about their consumption of six species, using either RRT or direct questions. For most species at most sites RRT and direct questions returned similar estimates of the proportion of the population who had consumed bushmeat in the previous year. However, RRT resulted in significantly higher estimates of bushmeat consumption in communities surrounding a protected area, where conservation activities made such questions sensitive. RRT has been predominately used in Europe and the USA; we demonstrate that it can provide a valuable approach for studying rule-breaking among people with poor literacy in low income countries. Between 12 and 33% of people across our sites had eaten brown lemur (Eulemur spp.), and 12–29% had eaten sifaka (Propithecus spp.) in the previous year. These results add to the growing body of evidence that hunting of protected species in Madagascar is a serious problem requiring urgent action. Conservation interventions to tackle bushmeat hunting will make questions about hunting or consumption more sensitive, increasing the need for researchers to use appropriate approaches for asking sensitive questions.

Seed dispersal is a pivotal ecological process but remains poorly understood on Madagascar, where lemurs are key dispersers. The black-and-white ruffed lemur (Varecia variegata) possesses many behavioural and ecological attributes potentially conducive to effective seed dispersal, but no studies have investigated dispersal patterns in this species. This 3-mo study quantified aspects of the primary seed dispersal patterns generated by two Varecia variegata groups (7 individuals). Feeding and ranging behaviour was quantified using behavioural observation (345.6 h), dispersal quantity and seed identity was determined by faecal analysis, and 10-wk germination trials tested effects of gut passage on germination of four species. Individual lemurs dispersed an estimated 104 seeds d−1, of 40 species. Most seeds were large (>10 mm); the largest was 42 mm long. Gut passage was rapid (mean 4.4 h) and generally increased germination speed and success. Mean and maximum inferred dispersal distances were 180 and 506 m respectively; low compared with many anthropoids, but possibly typical of lemurs. Though limited by a short study period, results suggest that the ruffed lemur is an effective disperser of seeds and possibly a critical disperser of large-seeded species which other frugivores cannot swallow. Loss of large-bodied seed dispersers such as Varecia variegata may have far-reaching ecological consequences including impacts on forest structure and dynamics.

Cyclones have been suggested to play a major role in the evolutionary history of the flora and fauna of Madagascar (Wright 1999). In spite of the proposed significance of cyclonic activity, very little is known about the specific effects of cyclones on Malagasy ecosystems (Birkinshaw & Randrianjanahary 2007). Understanding the effects of these severe natural disturbances requires comparing data collected both before and after the event. Because cyclones are stochastic, researching the influence of cyclones on Madagascar's biodiversity is difficult and opportunities to study their impact on forests are rare. Nevertheless, studies of the impact of cyclones on Malagasy biota are imperative because models of global climate patterns predict that large-scale tropical disturbances will increase in frequency and intensity in the future (Metcalfe et al. 2008).

The increasing proportion of the landscape used by humans has led, and is still leading, to the conversion of the original habitat into numerous small patches, often separated by a matrix of inhospitable land-uses. This habitat fragmentation is a major threat to biological diversity and is considered to be the primary cause of the present species extinction crisis (Aurambout et al. 2005). Survival in fragments is related to both intrinsic factors, such as abundance and sex ratio, and extrinsic factors related to patch quality (Ramanamanjato & Ganzhorn 2001, Rovero & Struhsaker 2007). At first, the fragmentation process can randomly distribute animals among forest patches and across fragmented habitat and surrounding matrix (Marsh 2003, Tischendorf et al. 2005). Local populations can survive only if the colonized forest remnants are adequate and/or dispersal is possible (Marsh 2003). Subsequently, a non-random distribution can result from local populations either remaining connected but distinct (metapopulation) or merging into a single large but patchy population (Harrison & Taylor 1997). Such distribution can be dictated by different aspects of fragment quality, including size and vegetation variables (e.g. tree species diversity, large-tree abundance and food plant availability) (Ramanamanjato & Ganzhorn 2001, Rovero & Struhsaker 2007). The mutual relationship among variables and their linkage to animal abundance have proven difficult to disentangle and mammals largely diverge in their response to different fragment quality aspects (Irwin 2008, Ramanamanjato & Ganzhorn 2001, Rovero & Struhsaker 2007).

We assessed the consumption and hunting of wild animals by people in urban areas of western Madagascar using structured questionnaires in households and direct observations. Six wild mammal and five wild bird species were reported, or observed, to be sources of bushmeat although fish and domestic animals were the preferred and cheapest sources of animal protein. Bushmeat accounted for 10% of the meat consumed the day before our questionnaires were completed. Common tenrec Tenrec ecaudatus and bush pig Potamochoerus larvatus were the preferred wild meat and the former was also the most expensive type of meat. Taboos and strong dislikes limited the consumption of domestic pigs, bush pigs, goats, lemurs and fruit bats. Game species were hunted according to their availability, which coincided with the legal hunting season for fruit bats but only partly so for the other game species. Illegal hunting of Verreauxi’s sifaka Propithecus verreauxi is cause for concern and assessments of primate consumption may have been underestimated because of reluctance of interviewees to admit illegal activities.

A 16-year study of wild, unprovisioned sifaka Propithecus verreauxi verreauxi at Beza Mahafaly in south-west Madagascar provides estimates of age-specific fertility, mortality, and dispersal in a population of 426 marked animals, and longitudinal records of individual life histories. Sifaka females give birth for the first time later and live longer, for their size, than mammals in other orders; they also give birth later and continue reproducing longer, for their size, than other primates. Theory postulates that these features, commonly referred to as bet-hedging, evolve in unpredictable environments in association with widely varying infant survival and a trade-off between reproductive effort and adult survival. The climate of south-west Madagascar is highly unpredictable compared to almost all other regions in the tropics with similar average rainfall, and we argue that sifaka females are bet-hedgers par excellence. Male sifaka, in contrast, become reproductively active at an earlier age than females, and are less likely to have long lives than females. The atypical direction of this asymmetry between males and females reflects a ‘slowing down’ of female life histories rather than a ‘speeding up’ of male life histories. Two other unusual features of sifaka biology and behaviour may be linked to the unpredictability of Madagascar's climate: intense local competition between females, and a sex ratio at birth strongly biased in favour of males in most years. In drought years, reproductive females must cope with suddenly intensified resource constraints. This, in turn, may strongly limit the number of ‘breeding slots’ available over the long-term for females.