In this paper, we consider functional limit theorems for Poisson cluster processes. We first present a maximal inequality for Poisson cluster processes. Then we establish a functional central limit theorem under the second moment and a functional moderate deviation principle under the Cramér condition for Poisson cluster processes. We apply these results to obtain a functional moderate deviation principle for linear Hawkes processes.

In this paper we first use the distribution of the number of records to demonstrate that the right tail probabilities of counts of rare events are generally better approximated by the right tail probabilities of a Poisson distribution than those of the normal distribution. We then show that the moderate deviations in Poisson approximation generally require an adjustment and, with suitable adjustment, we establish better error estimates of the moderate deviations in Poisson approximation than those in [18]. Our estimates contain no unspecified constants and are easy to apply. We illustrate the use of the theorems via six applications: Poisson-binomial distribution, the matching problem, the occupancy problem, the birthday problem, random graphs, and 2-runs. The paper complements the works [16], [8], and [18].

We consider a class of correlated Bernoulli variables, which have the following form: for some 0 < p < 1,

$$\begin{align}{P(X_{j+1}=1 \vert {\cal F}_{j})= (1-\theta_j)p+\theta_jS_j/j,}\end{align}$$

$S_n=\sum _{j=1}^nX_j$

${\cal F}_n=\sigma \{X_1,\ldots , X_n\}$

In this paper we study the Robbins–Monro procedure Xn+1 = Xn - an-1Yn with some fixed number a > 0 and establish the moderate deviation principle of the process {Xn}.

By extending the methods of Peligrad et al. (2014), we establish exact moderate and large deviation asymptotics for linear random fields with independent innovations. These results are useful for studying nonparametric regression with random field errors and strong limit theorems.

In this paper, we mainly study the moderate deviation principle of sample quantiles and order statistics for stationary m-dependent random variables. The results obtained in this paper extend the corresponding ones for an independent and identically distributed sequence to a stationary m-dependent sequence.

Importance sampling has become an important tool for the computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures. For estimation of such nonlinear functionals of the underlying distribution, the standard efficiency analysis is not necessarily applicable. In this paper we therefore study importance sampling algorithms by considering moderate deviations of the associated weighted empirical processes. Using a delta method for large deviations, combined with classical large deviation techniques, the moderate deviation principle is obtained for importance sampling estimators of two of the most common risk measures: value at risk and expected shortfall.

In this paper, a moderate deviation theorem for one-dimensional stable random walks in random scenery is proved. The proof relies on the analysis of maximum local times of stable random walks, and the comparison of moments between random walks in random scenery and self-intersection local times of the underlying random walks.

Let Tn be a Studentized U-statistic. It is proved that a Cramér typemoderate deviation P(Tn ≥ x)/(1 − Φ(x)) → 1 holds uniformly in x ∈ [0, o(n1/6))when the kernel satisfies some regular conditions.