The turnover of rural doctors, including doctors who leave clinical practice in rural areas, may disrupt the continuity of care. Though strategies had been formulated to address the problems associated with low retention rates, they proved to be unrewarding. This study aimed to investigate how we could anticipate the loss of rural doctors to facilitate their retention in advance.

We conducted a cross-sectional survey and collected data from rural doctors in Jiangsu Province.

Research on the employment status of target admission graduates in Jiangsu.

Multi-stage stratified sampling methods were employed to select the respondents in this study. We selected 722 rural physicians, who represented all the rural physicians from Northern, Central, and Southern Jiangsu.

Factors affecting anticipated rural retention (odds ratios (OR)).

The anticipated rural retention rate was 72.8% for the 722 respondents from Jiangsu province. Economically developed work areas (ORCentral JS = 0.501, ORSouthern JS = 0.475), a higher monthly income (OR 3000∼ = 0.584, OR6000∼ = 0.255), and an advanced rank among counterparts (OR = 0.507) were protective factors for anticipated rural retention. Risk factors involved the monthly expenditure, mainly for socialization with others (OR = 1.856), working hours of more than 50 hours/week (OR = 2.076), assignment of outpatient work (OR = 1.991), and filing work (OR = 1.544) as the main tasks on a daily basis.

A combination of strategies, including the strengthening of economic incentive as well as the ability to deal with a heavy workload, could increase the recruitment and retention rate in Jiangsu Province.