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  • 15 - Mortality Modelling at the Oldest Ages in Human Populations

  • Edited by Jean-François Lemaître, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Samuel Pavard, National Museum of Natural History, Paris
  • Book:
    The Biodemography of Ageing and Longevity
    Published online:
    14 November 2024
    Print publication:
    21 November 2024, pp 300-310

  • Summary

    Population aging is a widening demographic phenomenon in many developed countries, with the numbers of survivors above age 90 growing at steady rates. It is the source of many challenges to society. Among key factors to understand population aging, the trajectory of mortality at the highest ages figures at the centre of heated debates across disciplines, from biological to social sciences. This chapter offers a brief overview of mortality modelling above age 90, tracing the history of the most widely used mortality models at these ages, before outlining these models’ mathematical functions as well as their underlying assumptions in the most accessible way possible. Main empirical results obtained from applications of these models throughout decades of research will also be presented, following by a summary of efforts that were made to address the question of possible limits of longevity. This chapter concludes with recommendations for future research. The hope is this material will be useful for anyone who wishes to seize the broad perspective of research on mortality trajectory at highest ages.