Cerebral microvascular dysfunction may contribute to depression via disruption of brain structures involved in mood regulation, but evidence is limited. We investigated the association of retinal microvascular function, a proxy for microvascular function in the brain, with incidence and trajectories of clinically relevant depressive symptoms.

Longitudinal data are from The Maastricht Study of 5952 participants (59.9 ± 8.5 years/49.7% women) without clinically relevant depressive symptoms at baseline (2010–2017). Central retinal arteriolar equivalent and central retinal venular equivalent (CRAE and CRVE) and a composite score of flicker light-induced retinal arteriolar and venular dilation were assessed at baseline. We assessed incidence and trajectories of clinically relevant depressive symptoms (9-item Patient Health Questionnaire score ⩾10). Trajectories included continuously low prevalence (low, n = 5225 [87.8%]); early increasing, then chronic high prevalence (early-chronic, n = 157 [2.6%]); low, then increasing prevalence (late-increasing, n = 247 [4.2%]); and remitting prevalence (remitting, n = 323 [5.4%]).

After a median follow-up of 7.0 years (range 1.0–11.0), 806 (13.5%) individuals had incident clinically relevant depressive symptoms. After full adjustment, a larger CRAE and CRVE were each associated with a lower risk of clinically relevant depressive symptoms (hazard ratios [HRs] per standard deviation [s.d.]: 0.89 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83–0.96] and 0.93 [0.86–0.99], respectively), while a lower flicker light-induced retinal dilation was associated with a higher risk of clinically relevant depressive symptoms (HR per s.d.: 1.10 [1.01–1.20]). Compared to the low trajectory, a larger CRAE was associated with lower odds of belonging to the early-chronic trajectory (OR: 0.83 [0.69–0.99]) and a lower flicker light-induced retinal dilation was associated with higher odds of belonging to the remitting trajectory (OR: 1.23 [1.07–1.43]).

These findings support the hypothesis that cerebral microvascular dysfunction contributes to the development of depressive symptoms.