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school closing policy

Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena (1)

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Pre-symptomatic Influenza Transmission, Surveillance, andSchool Closings: Implications for Novel Influenza A (H1N1)
G. F. Webb, Y-H. Hsieh, J. Wu, M. J. Blaser
Journal:

Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena / Volume 5 / Issue 3 / 2010

Published online by Cambridge University Press:

28 April 2010, pp. 191-205

Print publication:

2010
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Early studies of the novel swine-origin 2009 influenza A (H1N1) epidemic indicateclinical attack rates in children much higher than in adults. Non-medical interventionssuch as school closings are constrained by their large socio-economic costs. Here wedevelop a mathematical model to ascertain the roles of pre-symptomatic influenzatransmission as well as symptoms surveillance of children to assess the utility of schoolclosures. Our model analysis indicates that school closings are advisable whenpre-symptomatic transmission is significant or when removal of symptomatic children isinefficient. Our objective is to provide a rational basis for school closings decisionsdependent on virulence characteristics and local surveillance implementation, applicableto the current epidemic and future epidemics.