Depression, the most frequent and harmful mental disorder, has been associated with specific somatic diseases as the leading cause of death. The purposes of this prospective study were to predict incident chronic diseases based on baseline depressive symptoms and to test sex-dependent effects.

In a representative German community sample of over 12 000 participants, baseline depressive symptoms (assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9) were tested as a predictor of new onset of cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic obstructive lung disease, diabetes, cancer, and migraine at 5-year follow-up. To study disease incidence, we created subsamples for each chronic disease by excluding participants who already had the respective disease at baseline. Potential confounders were included in logistic regression models and sex-specific analyses were performed.

Controlling for demographic characteristics and loneliness, in men and women, baseline depressive symptoms were predictive of CVD, chronic obstructive lung disease, diabetes, and migraine, but not of cancer. When we additionally adjusted for metabolic and lifestyle risk factors, there was an 8% increase of chronic obstructive lung disease and migraine per point of depressive symptoms. There was a trend for CVD (4%; p = 0.053). Sex-sensitive analyses revealed trends for the relevance of depressive symptoms for CVD in men (p = 0.065), and for diabetes in women (p = 0.077).

These findings underscore the need to implement screening for depression in the treatment of major somatic illnesses. At the same time, depressed patients should be screened for metabolic and lifestyle risk factors and for somatic diseases and offered lifestyle interventions.