This paper studies whether school-based financial education has spillover effects from children to parents. Leveraging data from a large-scale experiment with public high schools in Peru and credit bureau records on the parents of the youth targeted, this study measures the impact of providing personal finance lessons during secondary school on parental financial behavior. Financial education lessons in the school yield limited average spillover effects, but lead to sizable effects on parental financial behavior within disadvantaged households. Among parents from poorer households, the treatment reduces default probability by 26%, increases credit scores by 5%, and increases current debt levels by 40%. The treatment has stronger effects among the parents of daughters, who experience a significant 6.7% increase in their credit score and a 28% reduction in their loan portfolio in arrears. Among the parents of boys, most of the spillover effects are muted.

Governments’ economic policies need to be based on a coherent view of the role of innovation and productivity in sustaining growth. This article analyses advice on fostering innovation from Australia’s main statutory economics adviser, the Productivity Commission. It argues that the Productivity Commission’s comprehensive 2007 report, Public Support for Science and Innovation, contributed to a policy vacuum hampering government support for innovation for nearly a decade. First, within the Productivity Commission’s understanding of innovation was a contradiction between its required policy targeting criteria and the impossibility of meeting these criteria. Second, the resulting stance on innovation policy was at odds with research and theory on the drivers of innovation and hence growth – particularly innovation systems theories and those based on evolutionary economics. The ensuing innovation policy vacuum suggests that the Productivity Commission placed the abstract ideological ‘purity’ of neoclassical economic theory above empirical exploration of how government can best support Australia’s future economic development. Since late 2015, moves to fill this policy vacuum have included a Senate inquiry, a government department restructure, and the creation of a new Innovation and Science statutory advisory board. Whether these initiatives foster sustained innovation will depend on the extent to which they adopt approaches based on innovation systems or evolutionary economics, and transcend the static neoclassical mindset espoused by the Productivity Commission.

This paper examines the financial stress interconnectedness among Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain (GIIPS) economies and Germany. Based on market-level financial stress indices, we examine the stress transmission process as well as the causal network relationships in banking sector, bond, money, and stock markets. The period under investigation, 2001–2013, allows to test the effects of the 2007–2009 financial crisis as well as the subsequent European sovereign crisis. Using two alternative techniques for connectedness analysis, our evidence suggests that the peripheral economies of Italy and Spain play a highly significant role in the stress transmission in all markets, especially in the cases of banks and equity markets. Moreover, we visualize our results using network analysis. Contrary to common wisdom, Portugal, Ireland, and mainly Greece do not seem to have an important role in amplifying stress levels.

This article explores the long-term effects of foreign direct investment on the human capital development of host economies, based on the historical analysis of the Spanish operations of four leading American firms: ITT, J. Walter Thompson, Merck Sharp & Dohme, and John Deere. Our research shows that the training and working practices of these companies had a positive impact on the Spanish subsidiaries in terms of technological upgrading and managerial development. However, the local context was also relevant, through mandatory agreements that empowered local partners from the start and the availability of locally educated professionals eager to absorb new knowledge.

We modify NiGEM in order to study the macroeconomic effects of imposing import tariffs in the US under different assumptions regarding the long-run price setting behaviour of exporters. Overall, the macroeconomic implications in the US resemble the impact of a cost shock or adverse supply shock as prices increase while output declines. Due to exchange rate movements and changes in the prices of traded goods, prices and output in other economies tend to move in the same direction. We demonstrate that the size and persistence of the macroeconomic impact following the introduction of new tariffs critically hinge upon the specific assumptions underlying the behaviour of export prices. If foreign exporters are concerned about their net-of-tariff prices, there will be little adjustment after the initial surge in tariff-inclusive export prices. As a result, the adverse macroeconomic impact will be large and persistent both in the US and abroad. While additional government spending financed by tariff revenues could mitigate the adverse impact on the protectionist economy in the short run, retaliation by its trading partners would worsen the outcome. Our simulations also raise doubts about the ability of protectionist measures to rein in global imbalances.

This paper introduces a special issue of the Review on how the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) is being used to navigate uncertain times. NiGEM is the leading global macroeconomic model, used by both policy-makers and the private sector across the globe for economic forecasting, scenario building and stress testing. The paper summarises the main features of NiGEM and describes some standard model simulations to illustrate how the model responds to monetary, fiscal and technology shocks.

There is a strong case for boosting public investment in many countries based on identified country-specific structural weaknesses and the relatively low levels of such investment. This paper analyses the potential macroeconomic benefits of increased public investment using simulations on NiGEM. The results suggest that the supply-side benefits from raising potential output are likely to lead to more favourable macroeconomic outcomes than those from using many other standard fiscal instruments, although it takes many years for the full effect on potential output to accumulate. Variant model simulations also suggest that a fiscal stimulus will be more effective in the short term the less it is offset by monetary policy, making well-targeted policy initiatives especially effective when policy interest rates are at the zero lower bound. Globalisation implies that spillover effects from collective action are larger than in the past, boosting multipliers relative to the case where countries take individual action, particularly in the first two years after the policy change. Such spillovers are likely to be particularly important in small open European economies, especially those strongly integrated in European value chains.

For a large number of countries, we augment the specification of import demand in NiGEM by accounting for different import contents of individual expenditure components. Three examples illustrate that these changes have important implications for model outcomes. In the case of the recently enacted US tax reform and in a ‘hard landing’ scenario for China, spillovers become more pronounced while the domestic effects turn out more muted than in the default specification. The reverse is true for the ramifications of a public investment push in Germany. Hence, we believe that our add-on to NiGEM can be a useful tool for robustness exercises, in particular for spillover studies.

Extant spillover literature explains domestic firms' productivity change mainly by the presence and attributes of foreign direct investment. In contrary, this paper, by adopting a routine-based model of absorptive capacity, intends to explore how domestic firms absorb spillovers over time. Based on a qualitative study of a domestic firm in China's silicone adhesive industry, the findings show that unbounded by geographical constraints, domestic firms enact their external absorptive capacity routines to actively search for spillovers from multinational enterprises (MNEs) at both national and international levels. Moreover, rather than searching for what is available, domestic firms are selective for spillovers that are coherent with their business strategies. The most unexpected finding is that domestic firms diligently acquire spillovers from MNEs and from local competitors in combination. Spillovers acquired from local competitors are used to increase the inferential accuracy of spillovers acquired from MNEs about strategic successes. Further, instead of absorbing spillovers from MNEs which pose moderate technology gaps, domestic firms target at MNEs which exhibit wider technology gaps, and undertake organizational learning and develop complementary assets to enhance their internal absorptive capacity routines. Socially enabling mechanisms are found to facilitate domestic firms' absorption of spillovers by employee turnover.

The Scotland Bill 2015–16 would make the Scottish government one of the most powerful sub-central governments in the OECD in terms of its control over spending and taxation. The UK government has also announced plans to introduce ‘English Votes for English Laws’ (EVEL), where the support of a majority of English MPs would be necessary to pass legislation deemed to impact on England only. The objective of this paper is to examine the potential for spillovers to arise in monetary unions of asymmetric nations where fiscal policy choices are taken locally. We extend a model of Chari and Kehoe (2008) to show the sub-optimal consequences of devolved fiscal policy in a moneteary union with a dominant member state. Because England is so much larger than the other constituent nations of the UK, its fiscal policy choices will have a commensurately stronger impact on UK monetary policy. As a result, UK monetary policy might be inappropriate for the smaller nations, calling into question the economic efficiency of EVEL. This is a general result which arises from the asymmetry of nations rather than specific UK funding arrangements or behavioural responses.

A field experiment carried out by Butler and Nickerson (Butler, D. M., and Nickerson, D. W. (2011). Can learning constituency opinion affect how legislators vote? Results from a field experiment. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 6, 55–83) shows that New Mexico legislators changed their voting decisions upon receiving reports of their constituents’ preferences. The analysis of the experiment did not account for the possibility that legislators may share information, potentially resulting in spillover effects. Working within the analytic framework proposed by Bowers et al. (2013), I find evidence of spillovers, and present estimates of direct and indirect treatment effects. The total causal effect of the experimental intervention appears to be twice as large as reported originally.

This paper analyzes government spending multipliers in a two-country model of a monetary union with price stickiness and home bias in consumption where monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate. Government spending multipliers under this constraint are computed and compared with fiscal multipliers in normal times, that is, where the central bank sets the nominal interest rate via a Taylor rule. The trade elasticity and the parameter measuring home bias in consumption play an important role in determining the size of the multiplier. The multipliers are not necessarily large under the ZLB constraint. However, compared with the fiscal multipliers when the central bank sets the nominal interest rate according to a Taylor rule, the multipliers under the ZLB are bigger. Moreover, the persistence parameter of the binding ZLB plays a crucial role.

There is a family of models with physical and human capital and R&D for which convergence properties have been discussed [Lutz G. Arnold, European Economic Review 44, 1599–1605 (2000); Manuel Gómez, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 9(1), Article 5 (2005)]. However, spillovers in R&D have been ignored in this context. We introduce spillovers in this model and derive the steady-state and stability properties. This new feature implies that the model is characterized by a system of four differential equations. A unique balanced growth path, along with a two-dimensional stable manifold, is obtained under simple and reasonable conditions. Transition is oscillatory toward the steady state for plausible values of parameters. We discovered that these features are due to the presence of the R&D spillovers externality in the decentralized equilibrium.

Le laboratoire commun de recherche (Joint Research Lab) est-il préférable à la non-coopération en R&D et sous quelles conditions ? Il est habituel de considérer que le bénéfice social de la coopération en R&D dépend principalement de trois facteurs : (i) le niveau de spillovers, (ii) le degré de différenciation de produit, (iii) le degré de concurrence ex-post sur le marché de la production entre les firmes participant à l'accord.

Dans cet article, nous étudions l'impact de ces trois facteurs sur les efforts d'innovation entrepris dans le cadre d'un laboratoire commun de recherche, sur les quantités produites et les profits des firmes à l'équilibre. Nous montrons que le laboratoire commun de recherche associé à une collusion sur le marché du produit peut améliorer le surplus des producteurs et celui des consommateurs relativement à la concurrence pour certaines valeurs des spillovers et du degré de différenciation des produits. Nous montrons également que cette forme de coopération conduit les firmes à innover davantage en situation de cartel de production qu'en situation concurrentielle.

Dans une course à l'innovation, les possibilités de rattrapage d'une entreprise distancée sont-elles aiguisées ou au contraire excluespar la présence d'externalités de R&D ? Fudenberg, Gilbert, Stiglitz et Tirole montrent dans une course au brevet avec observation imparfaite de l'activité en R&D des entreprises rivales que ces possibilités de rattrapage existent. Notre article introduit deux hypothèses d'externalités de diffusion du savoir-faire. Nous examinons à l'équilibre, pour chacun d'eux, les conséquences sur les possibilités de rattrapage de la firme en retard. Dans un premier scénario, la part du savoir-faire acquis par chaque entreprise qui revient à sa rivale est décroissante : les possibilités de rattrapage disparaissent à l'équilibre. Dans un second scénario, le taux d'externalité est constant : le rattrapage, même réduit par le jeu des externalités, reste possible à l'équilibre. Nous concluons que dans ce contexte dynamique, les spillovers ont l'effet contre-intuitif d'augmenter la vitesse de l'innovation pour des firmes avec des niveaux d'expérience identiques. Nous mettons aussi en évidence qu'une modélisation différente des externalités influence les possibilités de rattrapage du retardataire.